It is impossible to know but I suspect Ole Miss and Mississippi State could beat any Big 12 team this year. SEC teams really do get beat up in conference play.
We will see how TCU and Ole Miss comes out.
And Baylor v. Michigan State should be interesting.
The X Factor in bowl games is always whether their heads are in the game.
It seems like teams that are disappointed with their bowl game or opponent often don’t play well.
For instance Baylor played awful last year and lost to Central Florida in the Fiesta Bowl, and OU beat Alabama in the Sugar.
It’s impossible to tell how the disappointment of missing the payoff will affect them.