The final straw over which southern Democrats broke their party apart, ensuring Lincoln’s election, was the issue of southern and slave access to all the territories. this was based on the theory that slavery had to expand or die, believed by both sides.
Yet we’re supposed to believe that the CSA would simply have walked away from this issue had war not broken out and have accepted complete exclusion from all the territories.
It seems much more likely to me that had Lincoln supinely agreed to recognize independence of the initial seven-stae CSA, tacitly or de jure, additional demands would have been made: surrender of some territories, return of all fugitive sllaves, CSA supervision of such return, etc.
The goal would have been to force a fight, because the original CSA was not really viable. They needed to get some or all of the remaining slave states to join them. No choice.
The break came at Sumter, but had Lincoln abandoned Sumter, it would have happened somewhere else.
BTW, that same belief that slavery HAD to expend meant that CSA independence would not have meant peace. They would have believed they had to expand into the Caribbean and Latin America.
This was not going to happen for simple logistical reasons. Given the technology of the day, the only way to stage such invasions was by sea. The Union Navy and Royal Navy would simply not have allowed such an invasion.
There you go, seeing the big picture with all of its implications and consequences instead of focusing on ones immediate gratification of “sticking it to the man”.
There is and always has been competition between the regions, for the exploitation of natural resources, and for acquisition of power. It’s never been smoothly conducted, but it has been moderated through the give and take of congressional negotiation. The method by which states were added (a “free” state in exchange for a “slave” state) is a good illustration. Imperfect but functional.
Any honest examination of the “lay of the land” in the 1850’s would acknowledge the desire and intent of both sides to develop and expand our presence in the west and northwest. While partners in this nation the interests of both sides were constrained and somewhat measured. When the confederacy formed one of the first things confederate sympathizers attempted was to seize control of states and territories all throughout the west and northwest (Whether or not they could retain it was another matter).
Add to that the necessary competition for foreign trade partners and you’ve got the foundation for generational conflict and strife. Especially when you don’t like your northern brothers to begin with ;’)