[ansel12]

So far it looks like the predictions of some posters that ran up to 6 billion by June of 2016, may have been too high.

[alpo]

This morning one of the two Gulfstream 3 jets was on it’s way to Dakar, probably to bring another case to Omaha.

The tail numbers of these planes are N163PA and N173PA.
They fly out of Cartersville, GA

[Dark Knight]

So far it looks like the predictions of some posters that ran up to 6 billion by June of 2016, may have been too high.<<

They were using climate change models.

DK

[Vermont Lt]

Most of the posters doing those predictions were using pretty straight forward forecasting tools. The problem is the number of variables used in the tools varies widely and there is a certain level of “chaos” involved here.

It remains a hot zone. It remains the largest outbreak of its kind. And it appears to still be out of control.

[DouglasKC]

So far it looks like the predictions of some posters that ran up to 6 billion by June of 2016, may have been too high.

I'm not sure about those numbers but the rate of infections is till doubling every month and the death rate is still at 70%.

That means if there's been 15,000 cases so far (and both WHO and the CDC believe this is underreported by a factor of 2 to 3 times) then in another month there will have been 30,000 cases.

So by Dec 20, 30,000.

By Jan 20, 60,000
By Feb, 120,000
By March, 240,000
By April, 480,000
By May 960,0000
By June 1,920,0000
By July 3,840,000
By August 7,680,000
By Sept 2015: 15,360,000
By October 2015: 30,720,000
By November 2015: 61,440,000

At a 70% death rate over 43,000,000 will be dead.

Again the rate of infection is at least doubling every single month...still. That hasn't changed. IF it continues this IS what will happen.

The ONLY thing that has changed is that the Ebola "czar" has leaned on the press to make it not so scary. But math is math and there is still no cure and no vaccine. And the death rate is still 70%.

It's not "predictions". It's not fear mongering. It's not alarmism. It's looking at the numbers, looking at the infection rates and extrapolating from there. If nothing changes this IS what will happen.

[DouglasKC]

You also might want to read this article from last month from the Washington Post:

The Omninous Math of the Ebola Epidemic.

I was being somewhat conservative in saying it's doubling every month. These guys said every 3 weeks.

But of course this was written just before the czar started shaping public opinion....

[tet68]

June of 2016 is a long way away yet.