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Thanks wtd - very nice update. Keep watching for more Sierra Leone daily new case spikes such as their 95 reported cases 11/01 (InternationalSOS reported 145 SL cases for 11/1, but it looks like they combined the 95 with the 50 cases reported 10/31 = 145). The SL 5 day new daily case moving average just made a 60 day and all time high at 66 cases/day average: more days over 70-80-90 cases/day will further overwhelm HCWs and facilities and increase the infection rate. These SL recent new case rates and record averages are the numbers you would be seeing just before EVD goes completely wild-out-of-control, starting the pandemic, which could be here right now, hiding in plain sight from those who aren’t looking for it.
Sierra Leone just recorded their highest daily new case number ever, 110 new cases for 11/5, bringing their 5 day and 10 day moving averages of daily new cases to record highs at 66/day for 5 days and 63/day for the 10 day average.
EVD is out of control ‘in the wild’ in SL, and a continuation of the record high daily new case numbers of 95 for 11/1 and the 110 cases for 11/5 will push the moving averages to new highs in the 70 cases/day range, at some point signaling the beginning of a runaway national infection that may cause travel bans on potentially exposed travelers wanting to leave SL.
The total daily new cases for the 3 countries for the last days reported is the 2nd highest ever recorded at 186 cases: 110 SL 11/5, 44 Guinea 11/3 and 32 Liberia 10/31, representing a daily EVD infection growth rate of 186/13042 total cases as of 11/2, or 1.4% increased cases per day, which rate has only declined slightly in the last 60 days.
https://www.internationalsos.com/ebola/index.cfm?content_id=397&language_id=ENG