Figure he had only about a 40% chance to score. But the chances that Perez would get a hit off Bumgarner or have the run score on a mishap was probably less than 25%.
True enough but Perez was hitting well and Bumgardner was starting to fatigue.
The runner was not going to get any faster on the last leg of what would essentially be an inside the park home run either (albeit caused by the error in the outfield)
The guy really had no other option but to hold him, hell he was pointing out that the cutoff man had the ball right after he put up the hold sign so the runner wouldn’t get too far the line towards home and get thrown out at third.