It's exponential. 2 becomes 4 becomes 8 becomes 16 becomes 32 becomes 64...etc. etc. But you never really answered my question: Why do you think it will NOT kill millions at least in Africa? What is going to stop it? There is no cure. It's not contained. The healthcare systems have collapsed. The economies are near collapse and people are still traveling. What will stop it from killing millions?
How many millions do you expect it to kill in America?
That depends on two things. One is our culture. We take care of sick loved ones. We hold them, we comfort them, we kiss them, we hug them. That's not going to stop. Our culture is also to bring really sick people to hospitals. That will overwhelm our health care systems just as fast. Doctors and nurses will die first just as they did in Africa. Our culture is not going to change overnight so I don't see that we have any advantage here over Africa.
The only other thing that could possibly stop it is if it evolves to where it's not deadly. That's the only thing that stopped the Spanish flu. If that had not happened there would likely have been many more millions, if not billions, killed.
It’s only exponential if it spreads, yet it didn’t spread far over the decades of Ebola outbreaks, that over almost 40 years has led to deaths in the thousands, not millions.
What is your rough guess of millions for the American death toll? How about Europe and the orient?
You are already predicting millions of African dead, what about the rest of the world?
As it was, the Spanish flu killed a estimate 6% of the global population.( the high estimate)
ZBOLA...Ebola Zaire, is not likely to mutate enough to change the disease and the strain. It or it’s predecessors have been running around for thousands of years.
This sort of die off, is common in flu viruses, but Ebola is not a common flu virus or anything like it..It’s mutations are generally simple DNA genetic markers that do not change the way the virus behaves from the RNA side..
It also has a container of a sort, that stuff has to fit into. This limits it’s ability to survive if it exchanged RNA with the Flu virus. If it was easy, it would have already done it..but with more and more fresh territory, it could find something to blend with...eventually..
Maybe a animal it had never seen before..or a human..
As far as the breakout staying exponential......I don’t think it will...I think people will begin to run from it.
Over time, unless we can stop it in Africa....running won’t really save you for very long. So we have to stop it...protecting ourselves will only work for so long...The virus could, when it jumps out of Africa, most likely through North Africa, it could slowly kill 30%+ of the worlds population.
Some people will never see it due to geographical isolation features, but Europe would, as would South America, Central America and then North America.
I have to admit, that I was surprised that they were not able to control it better..I assume, not ever having been there, that there are reasons why. I think if it had started here, it would have been contained.
I think the world powers and the US, need to get off their asses and declare war on it, while it is in Africa..