I would disagree slightly with the death trend. Note the crappy medical service of Africa, limited use of IV-solutions, no real antibiotics and marginal food being provided to those in the hospitals.
I would take a better guess that we will find that US care will result in a eighty-percent survival rate (older folks dying of course, those with other diseases like TB or HIV will not be able to beat the numbers, and kids under four with limited immune system). It might take six months...but our rates will go up and reflect on a better standard of healthcare.
Now, all of this said....here’s what bothers me. Let’s say you get it....you go to quarantine, and you get first-class care....where a month later you are released because you survived it. But four months later as you travel through some airport in Texas....you come into contract, and get round two of this. Your immune system was sorely tested last time. Will the antibiotics work the same, and is your body strong enough for round two? And if you make it through this episode....could you handle round three in five months time?
Bluntly.....stopping this at the border is absolutely necessary, or we will be facing Ebola on, and on, and on. And frankly, we don’t have resources to face a decade-long crisis with Ebola affecting forty million Americans yearly, with thirty-eight million surviving a bout.
Of course the Spanish Flu pandemic only had a 2% fatality rate...
Right now in Sierra Leone 5 people are affected every hour according to one source out there. I imagine much of the 3rd world countries will eventually come here since our borders are wide open and.... exhaust out heath care industry.
I don't think we can absorb the entire third world? Furthermore, how many of them would bring in more infected people?
Well, since ebola is a virus, not a bacterium, antibiotics won’t do spit to cure it. Also, unless your round two is wildly mutated, you’ll probably be immune to it.
My guess is that the limited supply is in western countries, the majority in the U.S.....That's not fair. And, again, my guess: A huge amount is being shipped to our victims in Africa. Sad state of affairs if these 3rd world diseases take hold here. Oh, well. Part of the King's plan. Makes me sick.
All could points. However, please consider the following
Countries infected with Ebola like Sierra Leone are beginning to collapse.
My guess is that many of them will flee here since we no longer protect our borders? Plus many will already be infected.
All these infected patience could over whelm our busy health care system that is already busy treating people for cancer, heart, etc....and collapse it.
I don’t know. Something to think about.
Do you make any assumptions that once having the disease you have a immunity to it?
Federal officials are working to sharply increase production of the experimental drug ZMapp, which many experts believe is the most promising treatment for Ebola, the Times reported Thursday.The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is trying to enlist Caliber Biotherapeutics in Texas to produce the drug, the newspaper reported, citing unidentified federal officials and drug industry executives.
Deaths are going to lag new infections because the infection rate is higher than the death rate. You also have to factor interventions.
As such, the death rate will hover between 50 and 60 percent and then increase when you start running out of healthy people to infect.
Kind of a macabre related rate problem.