Well, it appears to be a slam dunk. :)
At the time that the book was written (2005), there hadn’t been a lot of good research done on genetic material from the mass graves from the black death. In 2010, a very detailed study came to light.
Since then, there have been additional studies. For example, see Haensch S, Bianucci R, Signoli M, Rajerison M, Schultz M, Kacki S, Vermunt M, Weston DA, Hurst D, Achtman M, Carniel E, Bramanti B (2010). “Distinct Clones of Yersinia pestis Caused the Black Death”. In Besansky, Nora J. PLoS Pathogens 6 (10): e1001134. Try
http://www.plospathogens.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.ppat.1001134
(or http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20949072 [http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2951374/]).
They studied bodies from plague pits in multiple areas, as well as controls, and found the Y. pestis indications in plague-pit samples at multiple locations. As the authors state:
“In summary, two independent methods demonstrate that humans buried in mass graves that were historically and contextually associated with the Black Death and its resurgences, were consistently infected by Y. pestis in southern, central and northern Europe. Thus, the second pandemic was probably caused in large part by Y. pestis.”
Yes, there are far more dangerous microbes out there then the ebola virus in terms of mortality.
This is why I am not very concerned about it.
While it got out of control in West Africa, at some point it will have picked most of the low hanging fruit and will slow it’s advance.
In the US, the Dallas incident will be interesting to watch, to see how our systems cope with it.
It’s a very populated area of Texas, but if I am right, they will have it totally contained in a few days, with few if any transmitted infections and certainly none that are not on the surveillance and quarantine lists.
Having said that, I will be quite interested in the outcome.
Unfortunately for west Africa, this degree of control is not possible, thus they are low hanging fruit for the virus.
Some other western countries have already had this experience, and have faired just fine.