Silver’s model seems to be leaning somewhat more in favor of the GOP than I remember from several months back. I have to think Alaska should move to the GOP after the mess up there this week.
Silver's model aggregates existing polls. If existing poll models are bad, Silver's model will spit out garbage. I'm a little suspicious that the Dems are polling so well. Obama's Gallup approval/disapproval numbers have been stuck at around -10 for a year now. In 2010, they averaged the low negative single digits during the last 6 months before the election. That was a wave election for the GOP. I expect very bad numbers for the Dems in November.