Well, although anything can happen at anytime, (chaos theory), this disease has been ravaging West Africa and some other areas for a lot longer then 1976.
It’s estimated that this disease has roots that go back 1000’s of years. It’s home is in Africa for reasons, many of which have to do with the ecology and societies.
It is therefore highly unlikely to take root anywhere else.
Having said that, a cluster certainly could attempt to start anywhere. But it would not get very far and when it burns out, it would not likely happen again in the same place, similar to lightning.
Thus I do not have any fears of that nature. I actually would fear the common Flu more than this as it kills many multiples more people.
I have given much thought to eradicating the disease. I think it’s possible with either a vaccine for humans, or it could be attacked from the animal side (carriers) or both.
But we are not there yet.
I think perhaps we might get there after this outbreak is over....whenever that occurs..as once the death toll exceeds 1000 on a outbreak, there seems to be more attention given to the cause. Whatever that may be, but even so it’s going to take a lot of work to develop a vaccine for humans..which is why I mentioned attacking it from the animal side.
It does seem that we have developed some general drugs to beat the disease using the bodies own immune system, but nothing yet to stop it before it starts..
We have and are doing that for a number of carried diseases on the animal side. It requires baits and a lot of airplanes.(generally used),as well as a biological agent.
I suspect humans would require a live virus immunization, and based on what has happened with other similar live virus immunizations, I doubt the general public in Africa would allow it to be used on them.
So it’s a dilemma without a answer right now..
It’s impractical to vaccinate for it given that it’s in the ‘wild’ there. You will never control for that until you know precisely where and when it transfers to humans.
At just $50/shot (which given other immunizations effectiveness profiles will wear off in 5-10 years) it would cost $50B to immunize Africa. For just one strain of one particular hemorrhagic fever. And you’d have to return to every single village to vaccinate every single baby born subsequently.
It has also drifted, genetically, since it was discovered in ‘76. And could very easily drift out of your immunization antigen protocol at any time.
Vaccines are picky creatures that prefer specific temperature conditions as well. Difficult to maintain those in the African bush.
Better to develop small molecules that are available in pill form to treat the few thousand that might happen early on in an outbreak. Much cheaper too, long term.
That particular small molecule has been shown to totally arrest symptomatic ebola analogue in mice. It’s already being tested in humans for other ailments. And yet we have heard nothing about it.
It’s impractical to vaccinate for it given that it’s in the ‘wild’ there. You will never control for that until you know precisely where and when it transfers to humans.
At just $50/shot (which given other immunizations effectiveness profiles will wear off in 5-10 years) it would cost $50B to immunize Africa. For just one strain of one particular hemorrhagic fever. And you’d have to return to every single village to vaccinate every single baby born subsequently.
It has also drifted, genetically, since it was discovered in ‘76. And could very easily drift out of your immunization antigen protocol at any time.
Vaccines are picky creatures that prefer specific temperature conditions as well. Difficult to maintain those in the African bush.
Better to develop small molecules that are available in pill form to treat the few thousand that might happen early on in an outbreak. Much cheaper too, long term.
That particular small molecule has been shown to totally arrest symptomatic ebola analogue in mice. It’s already being tested in humans for other ailments. And yet we have heard nothing about it.