If it were truly out of control, the new cases would far exceed the deaths..just as it did when it was really out of control.
That is what I see in the stats.
It’s not rocket science, it’s just a common sense observation. I have never said it was over....Unless it jumps to fresh territory, it should begin to burn out. I say this also because this aspect is similar to other outbreaks in terms of the ending of them...
As to the validity or accuracy of these reports, I don’t have a opinion. I do know that WHO is not in the habit of making any declarative statement other than...”out of control”. I assume that like the UN, they have monetary reasons for that as well as the usual NGO rhetoric.
When do you think it was really out of control, if you don’t think it is out of control now?
There were 113 new cases between Aug 13 and Aug 16. Three days.
Between Aug 16 and Aug 18, 2 days, there were 233 new cases.
An increase of 50% in 66% of the time.
That’s hardly ‘tapering off’.
So the nearly straight up graph here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Diseased_Ebola_2014.png
is in fact ‘tapering off’ in your brand of mathematics, correct?
And it has jumped to ‘fresh territory’.
It’s in the slum of West Point Monrovia now.
That has 50K people.
With no decent sanitation.
Or access to clean water.
And they’re barricaded in.
Maybe it will ‘taper off’ on its own in there...
