One of the commentors over on the PANDEMIC FLU INFORMATION FORUM maade the following analysis of the Eric Ericson piece I posted earlier:
http://www.singtomeohmuse.com/viewtopic.php?t=5725&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=2715
A few points about the timeline. and some questions.
The man arrived in Dallas on Saturday, the 20th.
1. Pushing his symptom onset date back from the 26th to the 24th makes it slightly more plausible that the man was experiencing at least some initial symptoms upon his arrival on the 20th. That would mean that his fellow travelers were more at risk than has been presented.
There’s another reason to believe that the man might have demonstrated symptoms earlier. Think about it — you don’t run to an emergency room at a hospital until you’ve been sick for a few days. Not *two* days. But CDC wants us to believe that the man began to show symptoms on the 24th and went to the ER on the 26th. That idea might fly if the man had also admitted that he had just come from Liberia and had presented himself, early and worried about a possible Ebola infection, out of an abundance of caution. But he admitted to no such thing (nor did his family).
While watching cases of Ebola in Liberia, one thing that has stood out to us are the heart rending photos and videos of Ebola patients in ETUs sitting on those plastic chairs, slightly ill but not overwhelmingly so, simply waiting for their fate, for the virus to really kick in. That takes a few days, and is one of the hardest things for me, from my remote position, to watch. I can’t imagine what that must be like. But the patients do often sit there, for days, before turn really sick — say sick enough, if one was in this country, to head to an emergency room.
If the first visit to the ER really did happen on the 24th, that makes it more likely that the patient was symptomatic on arrival, or became so very shortly thereafter.
2. What was the patient doing on the weekend of September 20th? Was there a gathering in his honor on the 20th or 21st? (Saturday or Sunday?). Was there a wedding? A community celebration? Where was the man on Monday and Tuesday? Why would CDC possibly have lied and said that the man only became symptomatic on the 26th rather than the 24th?
If this has happened, CDC will believe that it can handle the matter quietly. It will ask the Liberian community in Dallas to be circumspect about it all, to decline to talk to the press. (And the press is approaching the community via social media and almost certainly in person locally). CDC could scare the Liberian community with visions of “stigmatism” should people start talking. But the Liberians should know by now that only the most open of discussion can stop this virus, whether in Liberia or here.
I agree with those who stated that Frieden’s body language and tone looked more worried than he wanted to let on. Something about the equation presented doesn’t add up. And CDC’s official dismissal of legitimate questions and concerns doesn’t help anybody, which they will figure out as the surprises tumble out in a willy-nilly fashion.
Those are excellent questions.
Local Dallas TV Station WFAA posted the following about a possible secondary Ebola case in Dallas.
The secondary case is a “Close associte” of Case Zero, but not family.
Thompson: Associate of Dallas Ebola patient under close monitoring
Marjorie Owens , WFAA 8:56 a.m. CDT October 1, 2014
http://www.wfaa.com/story/news/health/2014/10/01/thompson-dallas-county-ebola-patient-cases/16524303/
DALLAS — Due to close contact with a patient diagnosed with the Ebola virus, a second person is under the close monitoring of health officials as a possible second patient, said the director of Dallas County’s health department Wednesday morning in an interview with WFAA.
Zachary Thompson, the director of Dallas County Health and Human Services, says all those who’ve been in close contact with the diagnosed patient are being monitored as a precaution. However, Thompson pointed to one person in particular as a potential second case.
“Let me be real frank to the Dallas County residents, the fact that we have one confirmed case, there may be another case that is a close associate with this particular patient,” he said in a Wednesday interview with WFAA. “... So this is real. There should be a concern, but it’s contained to the specific family members and close friends at this moment.”
The director continued to assure residents that the public isn’t at risk as health officials have the virus contained.
Dallas County health director addresses Ebola case
Tuesday, the Center for Disease Control confirmed a patient at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital Dallas was the first person to be diagnosed with the Ebola virus in the United States.
The patient left Liberia on September 19 and arrived in Dallas the following day. On September 26, he sought treatment at the hospital after becoming ill but was sent home with a prescription for antibiotics. Two days later, he was admitted with more critical symptoms, after requiring an ambulance ride to the hospital.
Local health officials say the patient was in contact with several children before he was hospitalized. Thompson says each of those children have been kept home and are under precautionary monitoring.
The Dallas County school district says they’re working closely with health officials.
“DISD is in contact with Dallas County Health Department regarding the Ebola investigation,” read a statement from Jon Dahlander, a spokesman with the district. “They are consulting with the County on any additional action that may need to be taken during the course of investigation. This is part of routine emergency operations during a health incident in the county. This is same protocol taken during things like flu and Tuberculosis cases.”
Based on the math I’ve been able to do, I think WHO/CDC is fudging its numbers, the reported ones.
The reported numbers aren’t even close to matching up with journalist reports of what they are seeing in front of them, with all the precautions and restrictions placed on them in these situations.
No cases in Southern Italy and France? None. That’s not underreporting.
This case in Dallas happened so much faster than they thought it would.
Oh, and if there is an R in Congress with a full set, they will use this and the ‘paralyzing enterovirus’ outbreak as an excuse to FINALLY close the southern border down and run it like you would any other national frontier.
Interesting dot connecting in this video:
Dallas Ebola Victim Acquired His Infection On His Aircraft +50% Probability
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vW_jvTSNvxo&feature=youtu.be
http://pissinontheroses.blogspot.com/2014/09/maximum-alert-dallas-ebola-victim-most.html
From all of the descriptions, Ebola symptoms hit suddenly, and hard. If he did not report having symptoms on the 20th, he truly did not have symptoms.
The symptoms that cause it to be contagious are the expulsion of diseased bodily fluids.