http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/134771/1/roadmapsitrep_24Sept2014_eng.pdf?ua=1
OVERVIEW
The total number of probable, confirmed and suspected cases (see Annex 1) in the current outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa was 6263, with 2917 deaths, as at the end of 21 September 2014. Countries affected are Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone. Figure 1 shows the total number of confirmed and probable cases by country that have been reported in each epidemiological week between the start of 30 December 2013 (start of epidemiological week 1) and the end of 21 September 2014 (epidemiological week 38: 15 to 21 September), and indicates a fall in the number of reported new cases compared with the previous two weeks. However, for reasons given below, this is unlikely to be an accurate reflection of the reality. The epidemic of EVD in West Africa is still increasing.
There is a huge spike in reported cases from the Sierra Leone lock down and a notable fall in Ebola case data reporting from Monrovia Liberia, despite credible media reports of the situation there getting worse.
I am getting the distinct impression of the WHO playing the role of Kevin Bacon at the End of the ANIMAL HOUSE movie —
“Don't Panic, All is Well!!”
...with roughly the same level of effectiveness.
The Ebola case load in West Africa is increasing exponentially and the world health response is still increasing linearly.
The collapse of West African civilian infrastructure via Ebola casualties will be well underway when the 3,000 US Army staff are in place in Liberia in late October 2014.
Cases and deaths found during
the three-day house-to-house Ebola sensitization campaign, which came to an end on 21 September,
are not yet included in official data.
http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/134771/1/roadmapsitrep_24Sept2014_eng.pdf?ua=1
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The number should spike upward even more after those case and death counts are added to the record. There is another “lockdown” for additional communities and tribal areas going on.