The start of human trials of the first Ebola vaccine yesterday day is incredibly good news
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/11101638/Briton-is-first-to-try-Ebola-vaccine.html
and, in particular, these two statements:
”The funding will also allow GSK to begin manufacturing 10,000 additional doses of the vaccine at the same time as the initial clinical trials …… “He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that a fast-track process could see the vaccine being trialled in West Africa by the end of the year …”
This means numerically significant field testing of an Ebola vaccine sixty (60) days faster than my most optimistic hope a month ago, when I first learned of the fomite transmission threat.
I still don’t see a reasonable possibility of saving the tribal areas of West and Central Africa, but it might be possible to save the rest of sub-Saharan Africa, and particularly the countries with real governments. I’m dubious about the Islamic areas of Nigeria given their cultural backwardness and the power of the Boko Haram terrorists. The latter’s opposition to Western ways such as public health vaccinations will be a self-solving problem, but will still kill millions who might be saved.
Even under the best circumstances, though, human to human transmission of Ebola will remain endemic in the most affected tribal areas. This means the truly nutball Arab terrorists will be able to get samples in West Africa (smallpox is pretty much locked up by a few governments) and, eventually, not die horribly while weaponizing the stuff. Ebola virus can be frozen, revived and recultured, which means it can be smuggled into developed countries. Once terrorists learn how to weaponize Ebola from cultures and produce it in sufficient quantity without first killing themselves, they can grow cultures in secret labs (think meth labs) in the target countries and distribute it with vaporizers, plant it on fomites, infect winos with it, etc.
This is only a question of time.
Which means that mandatory mass vaccinations against Ebola are coming in developed countries. That may happen anyway to defeat the present epidemic when it spreads from sub-Saharan Africa, which CDC Director Frieden said is a “certainty”. IMO it is also almost certain that Nigeria will suffer a major Ebola epidemic before enough vaccine is available there to head it off. And, IMO, Nigeria will be the first major country to suffer such an epidemic. I just hope it will be the only one, and that the Nigerians delay this long enough for delivery of millions of doses of vaccines there to save most of their people. That would necessarily mean we’ll be able to avoid the mass quarantines which absolutely and for sure would wreck our economy.
But mandatory mass vaccinations against Ebola in the US are IMO inevitable. It might happen next year, but hopefully won’t. I’d rather wait for really thorough trials to develop the most effective and safest vaccine. We might have to go with what we’ve got next summer. We can only pray.
If they weaponize it, vaccines will be useless to fight it.
Vaccines will protect against the strain they use TO weaponize it. Not a weaponized strain.
The anti-HIV strategy of small molecules that inhibit binding and reproduction of the virus are more effective, and affordable, long term strategies.
With 300 million people, a $50 mandatory vaccine would be $15B dollars. Just to start.