I agree. They don’t crash out immediately after becoming symptomatic like previous ebola outbreaks. And fomite transmission is much more effective with smooth surfaces. Not many smooth surfaces in rural villages. But in an urban environment, particularly a hospital ER setting, there are lots of smooth surfaces (doorknobs, seats, desks, railings, elevator buttons, etc...)
I spoke with Thud in a side bar and he made the point that we are going to be seeing periodic huge spikes in Ebola new infection cases and deaths — at least until the data stops coming from places like in Liberia — as Ebola invades new high population density urban spaces.
We can expect Ebola cases and Ebola RO to go up and down reflecting that pattern.
It doesn't mean that disease control efforts are having any affect.
It is simply “infection rate noise” mirroring that Ebola ‘burns out’ the easily infected in new high population density areas very quickly and has diminishing returns on the higher/better hygiene remainder. Example -- Think public transportation users, public transportation operators and their families going to Ebola first. Then followed by those too poor, and finally those too affluent to use public transportation going down to Ebola in that order.