My guess is that the Russians are operating a no-fly zone with Russian SAM batteries in parts of Eastern Ukraine, manned by Russian regulars, but not networking them in with the full suite of eyes and ears so they can maintain plausible deniability. That way, foreign intel can't pin down, via signal intercepts, the fact that Russian troops are fighting an illegal war in Ukraine. The problem with not giving SAM operators all of the info they need is this - they shoot down things they shouldn't, like the MH17.
I’d agree with your assessment. When the Russians put together this whole anti-EU-treaty strategy back in November of 2013...I doubt if they went down the various sequential problems that would occur. This military boss in eastern Ukraine who was a big-Putin player....he’s likely hiding out and worried about either the KGB or some mafia unit coming in to whack him. He’s got a few days of life left in him...before they corner him.
As for the rest of this? If you look at economic issues of the past week, and general Europe discontent over the aircraft shot-down....I’d say the Russian stock-market will take a five-to-ten percent loss by the end of the month. It might trigger a bunch of players to leave that market and actually go to a twenty-percent loss by the end of August. Discontent with Putin? I’d say that whoever dreamed up the Ukraine strategy....really screwed up.
Clandestine Soviet-Russian anti-aircraft or air defense troop units engaged American air forces in combat in Korea and Vietnam.