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The next data battleground is going to be when the fall in TSI occurred. If it occurred in 2003 as per the PMOD and ACRIM data, then a corresponding fall in temperature is on the cards for about 2017. If it started in 1995 as per the new SORCE/TIM reconstruction now favored by the IPCC suggests, then the corresponding fall in temperature should have been evident from about 2006 — but since it didn’t happen that would mean the solar influence is weak. In the return of a previous theme, the measured data favors the former, while the later relies on reconstructions (the SORCE/TIM data only starts in 2003, and is not relevant to the 11 year smoothed values in the mid 1990s) that flatly disagree with the measured data.
Atmospheric temperature does not have a density component, since the density of the atmosphere varies. Ocean temperature has a density component because the water has a fairly stable known density. Or at least the signal to noise ratio is much less when measuring the temperature of water. If you want to see closer to real time responses in changes of TSI, you need to be using Ocean temperature.
Let me explain this in a nut shell, lets say the TSI or UV input from the sun rises over the long trend. Just ignore the magnitude change for now, since we have no idea how much of a factor a given amount of change would cause anyway. So the oceans warm because of the increased energy. What does that do ? It increases evaporation. What does that do ? It increases the density of the atmosphere. What does that do ? Causes a drop in atmospheric temperature. Yes the atmosphere would get a rise in temp from the extra solar energy, but would that rise be enough to even offset the drop in temperature due to higher atmospheric density ?
So atmospheric temperature is a horrible metric and explains why you cannot see the obvious with the metric. When measuring the atmosphere you need to measure the heat content or heat density. Then you wont be getting noise from the changing density of the atmosphere caused by the changing ocean temps.
The reverse effect is also true. If solar input drops, then the oceans cool and there is less evaporation. This causes the atmosphere to become less dense. That causes a rise in temperature that will offset the drop due to less solar input into the atmosphere.