[null and void]

Exactly. We're quibbling about the size of the factors in the Drake equation.

We agree that the odds of a terrestrial radio signal having reached a system with intelligent life at this point is minuscule.

You did catch an error of mine, the bubble has a 200 light year diameter, not 100 ly. But I did make a compensating error in that deliberate transmissions form a smaller bubble. Taken together, that expands the number of systems that could have heard a recognizable signal a bit, to about a thousand or so.

Waddaya figure? one system in a million? ten million? a hundred million? has a technological civilization capable of hearing radio?

We've got a ways to go, eh?

[Svartalfiar]

Exactly. We're quibbling about the size of the factors in the Drake equation.

True, but that's not the only thing. The rest of your post finishes the argument: It's not just the Drake equation, it's also the locality. Even if there are thousands of tech'ed up civilizations out there, the chances of them being close enough to have even noticed us is impossibly tiny. I can't even say if any of our directed radio transmissions have hit anything, just like my anology earlier: it's like a rifle shot, at stuff several miles away. We likely missed the other planets, our round isn't going very fast anymore, and we can't even see where it went. The deliberate transmissions really don't form a bubble, they form thin lines that probably didn't even hit anything yet.