IMPORTANT Primary Senate Races Left: And How You Can Help

[campaignPete R-CT]

I’ve got it down to 43 districts. Need help weeding out which have important primaries. Need to sort by region.

CA-03 Garamendi

CA-09 McNerney

CA-16 Costa

CA-24 Capps

HI-01 OPEN

IA-01 OPEN

MN-01 Walz

MN-07 Peterson

NV-04 Horsford

NY-04 OPEN

NY-24 Maffei

OR-05 Schrader

WA-01 DelBene

AZ-09 Sinema

CA-26 Brownley

CA-31 OPEN

GA-12 Barrow

ME-02 OPEN

MN-08 Nolan

NY-01 Bishop

TX-23 Gallego

AZ-01 Kirkpatrick

AZ-02 Barber

CA-07 Bera

CA-36 Ruiz

CA-52 Peters

FL-18 Murphy

FL-26 Garcia

NH-01 Shea-Porter

NY-21 OPEN

WV-03 Rahall

IA-03 OPEN

NJ-03 OPEN

AR-02 OPEN

MI-08 OPEN

PA-06 OPEN

VA-10 OPEN

WV-02 OPEN

AR-04 OPEN

CA-25 OPEN

MT-AL OPEN

UT-04 OPEN

WI-06 OPEN

[apocalypto]

Great candidates!

[campaignPete R-CT]

got the regions, need to eliminate those without competitive primaries.

West Coast (13)

CA-03 Garamendi

CA-09 McNerney

CA-16 Costa

CA-24 Capps

CA-26 Brownley

CA-31 OPEN

CA-07 Bera

CA-36 Ruiz

CA-52 Peters

CA-25 OPEN

HI-01 OPEN

OR-05 Schrader

WA-01 DelBene

Mountain (7)

NV-04 Horsford

AZ-09 Sinema

AZ-01 Kirkpatrick

AZ-02 Barber

MT-AL OPEN

UT-04 OPEN

TX-23 Gallego

South (6)

GA-12 Barrow

FL-18 Murphy

FL-26 Garcia

AR-02 OPEN

AR-04 OPEN

VA-10 OPEN

Midwest (9)

IA-01 OPEN

IA-03 OPEN

MN-01 Walz

MN-07 Peterson

MN-08 Nolan

MI-08 OPEN

WV-02 OPEN

WV-03 Rahall

WI-06 OPEN

Northeast (8)

NY-04 OPEN

NY-24 Maffei

NY-01 Bishop

NY-21 OPEN

NJ-03 OPEN

PA-06 OPEN

NH-01 Shea-Porter

ME-02 OPEN

[campaignPete R-CT]

here are some updates. I am missing primaries in safe GOP seats. Will add them.

South (5)

GA-12 Barrow

FL-18 Murphy

FL-26 Garcia

AR-02 OPEN

AR-04 OPEN

Midwest (6)

IA-01 OPEN

IA-03 OPEN

MN-06 OPEN (Bachmann)

MI-08 OPEN

WV-02 OPEN

WI-06 OPEN

Northeast (6)

NY-04 OPEN

NY-22 Claudia Tenney

NY-01 Bishop

NY-21 OPEN

NH-01 Shea-Porter

ME-02 OPEN

[campaignPete R-CT]

THESE are safe GOP seats. What is going on in TN-4 ???
thirteen more
AL-6
CA 45
CO 4
GA 1
GA 10
GA 11
LA 06
MI 04
NC 06
OK 05
TN 04 ???
TX 36
WA 04

[campaignPete R-CT]

Here are my 6 choices in the Northeast. Blast away if one of these candidates is not the obvious choice or is too much of a long shot. Who else should I be pinging?

NY-04 OPEN Frank Scaturro over Blakeman

NY-22 Claudia Tenney

NY-01 (Bishop) Demos over Zeldin

NY-21 OPEN Elise Stefanik

NH-01 (Shea-Porter) Guinta

ME-02 OPEN Poliquin

[Impy]

Some important ones I forgot August 5

Michigan

Brian Ellis over Paulistianian Justin Amash in MI-4

Dave Trott over electorally weak Ronulan Kerry Benvitolio in MI-11

Louisiana Open Primary in November Stop RINO Dan Claitor

The only rats in the race are penniless nobodies and one penniless disgrace, Edwin Edwards. Claitor will probably make the runoff and is the defacto rat nominee. Republicans Garret Graves and Paul Dietzel are the only other candidates to raise appreciable amounts of money.

Graves was part of the Jindal administration (chair of the Coastal Something Something Authority) his website appears to be nothing but a page asking for donations.

Paul Dietzel is a young businessman, 27 or so I think. Looks impressive at first glance. His namesake Grandpa was head coach at LSU. I can’t say for certain he’s not a Ronulan though, needs further investigating.

My thoughts on NH

CD-1 Gunita should win the nomination easily, but maybe better safe than sorry

CD-2 I think Garcia’s increased elecibitly over Lambert makes her worthy to support in the primary even if they are about the same on the issues.

TN-4 State Senator Jim Tracy is only viable challenger against DesJarlais , who is I think a conservative but a scumbag who’s embarrassed the party. The other candidates only serve to split the anti-DesJarlais vote. Tracy is far out-raising DesJarlais.

NY-4 Blakeman appears to have the CON and IND ballot lines and 3 times as much money as Scaturro. I can’t speak to either man’s conservatism but I’m not sure Scaturro can win the nomination or if he would have a chance in November, he’s a grumbling outsider type, opponent of the party machine which does suck I’m sure but will be needed to win the GE (which is an outside chance I’d say).

In 2012 he ran as write in for the Conservative party nomination and won it over Francis Becker who the CON leaders endorsed. Becker won the GOP primary however and Scaturro stayed in the race and split the vote, getting 6%. Scaturro also clearly edits his own wikipedia page.

NY 1- Demos has twice as much money as State Senator Lee Zeldin. But Zeldin has the Conservative Party. Pataki endorsed Demos. Zeldin put out a dishonest ad calling Demos a “Pelosi Republican” because Demos’ father in law gave money to Pelosi (and to Demos). Both appear to be conservative. I would guess Zeldin is a stronger GE candidate.

I don’t know about that one. I just hope the vote is not split in November.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I’ll comment on TN-4. Clearly, DesJarlais had some terrible problems from over a decade ago (most of which, were he a Democrat, would be “old news” or a non-story), and were exposed solely because of the former incumbent Democrat Rep. Lincoln Davis seeking to embarrass him.

In almost any instance, I’d have favored replacing him. However, as a sitting member of Congress, his voting record has been near-impeccable. He is NOT a part of the party establishment and is the most Conservative member of the delegation. Based on his voting record, I really would prefer he remain, warts and all (and I think he could still pull it off in a general), a bit along the lines of my Nick Rahall example in the 1990 race. His record for fundraising has been in line with some of the other members (almost $400,000).

State Sen. Jim Tracy isn’t a bad sort, but he is more an establishment guy and has raised upwards of $1.3 million. He had an opportunity to run back in 2010 when he could’ve had the nomination just for the asking, but didn’t want to run against the execrable Lincoln Davis. DesJarlais stepped up when he didn’t. I just have a problem with these politicians that when they’re needed under tough circumstances, they run from the challenge, but only come in when they’re guaranteed it will be “safe” for them. DesJarlais could easily step aside now, but won’t, because he’s proud of his record of accomplishment in DC in standing against the establishment types.

[campaignPete R-CT]

I was hoping the idea would be to prioritize and list people who would have a consensus on this site.

Perhaps Scutarro doesn’t fit as he hasn’t gotten Conservative support in his district. Same with Demos perhaps. Which means we drop those 2 primaries cuz defeating conservative grassroots guys is not our priority. Same with NH-2 ,,,, defeating Lambert is not an urgent matter. We’d hafta get more input one district at a time.

[deport]

TX 23 could be a swing district. In 2012 Pete Gallego defeated incumbent Francisco Canseco
with 50.3% of the vote. Canseco is in a May 27th runoff against Will Hurd. Robert Lowry the
3rd place finisher (18.7% vote) in the GOP primary has thrown his support behind Hurd. So it
will be Gallego against either Canseco or Hurd plus any Ind. come Nov. 4.

The 23rd covers 29 Counties, very rural and skirts the major cities of San Antonio on the East
and El Paso on the West.

[campaignPete R-CT]

TX 23 is on the list ... but is there an obvious conservative choice in the Canseco vs Hurd primary?

and how about TX36 Babin vs Ben Streusand (R)

[Impy]

Based on his voting record, I really would prefer he remain, warts and all (and I think he could still pull it off in a general)

Could? Do you think he could lose the general? I assumed the seat was too safe. That would about seal it for me, I wouldn't want to risk a seat even if he has a good record.

[fieldmarshaldj]

My concern about TX-23 is nominating an Anglo over a Hispanic and their viability in the general. Of course, Anglo Blake “Flounder” Farenthold managed to upset Solomon Ortiz in 2010, but they excised the most Hispanic Southern portions of that district when he ran in 2012. I’d give Canseco a second shot.

I don’t have enough info on TX-36 to give an informed endorsement, if only because these are second-tier candidates. This is the district that should have featured Black GOP State Rep. James White succeeding Steve Stockman.

[fieldmarshaldj]

There is a Dem woman running, an accountant, and she has amassed a decent amount of money (over $300k). Still, I think in a year like this, even a damaged nominee like DesJarlais could pull it off. Once he did, his past misdeeds would effectively be off the table for future races. However, I’m not sure if he was planning on running for more than 3 or 4 terms, anyhow, so this race may be his last. I’ve not seen any polling data, anyhow, since it has been presumed since the start of his second term when all of the allegations came out that it was Tracy’s race to lose. I expect Tracy probably will win, and if he does, the Dem chances probably drop to 30-some percent.

[deport]

CD 23, I have no personal knowledge of either candidate. Canseco won in 2010 defeating
the Democrat Rodriguez. Lost in 2012 to Democrat Gallego.

The runoff Canseco/Hurd has racial tones at times as Hurd is biracial, black father —
white mother. It didn’t seem to hurt him in the primary as evidenced by his finish with
the district voters.

Age 18+
28.9% - Anglo
65.8% - Hispanic
03.6% - Afr-Am
02.1% - Other

[Impy]

I agree that nominating Canseco is the right move for TX-23.

As for TX-36

http://babinforcongress.com/endorsements/

http://www.benstreusand.com/endorsements

I don’t know.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I agree, the fact that DesJarlais might actually lose the general (while Tracy would be a shoo-in) would make me support Tracy even if DesJarlais wasn’t a scumbag who cheated on his wife with a patient and forced his patient/mistress to get an abortion (and also pressured his wife to get two abortions herself). So I don’t give a rat’s behind if he has a 100% pro-life voting record; I don’t trust him. Give me Tracy even if he has establishment support.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Canseco should be a no-brainer for TX-23. It’s a 63% Hispanic district, and nominating a black Anglo from San Antonio won’t win us votes from wavering Mexican-Americans in Eagle Pass or Del Rio. Canseco is a Mexican-American originally from Laredo and won the seat in 2010 before being defeated in 2012; he’d give us our best shot of winning it back.

In TX-36, I’d prefer Streusand, at least partly because I think that he would just keep the seat warm for when James White runs in 2016 (Babin is from the same area as White and might block his nomination).

[campaignPete R-CT]

Canseco is endorsed by TEX Right to Life

Hurd is also getting much conservative support ... his abortion position is unknown ... unless he is identified as pro-abort, there won’t be consensus that this race is crucial.

Hurd says:
•Protecting a citizen’s right to life, liberty and pursuit of happiness

TX36 Babin vs Ben Streusand (R) both appear to be pro-life teaparty conservatives.

Thus far, neither race belongs on this list.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Pete, the issue in TX-23 is not which one is more conservative, but which of the two conservatives can win. Nominating Hurd almost certainly would result in the liberal-to-moderate Democrat getting reelected; nominating Canseco gives us a fighting chance. If the objective is to elect conservatives, then we need to support Canseco.

But I agree that the TX-36 primary should not be a huge priority.