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To: Errant
From 2 minutes and 6 seconds through the end of that video, is well worth your time.

Comet 209P/Linear is parallel to Earth's orbital plane around May 19 through May 20, 2014, 3 Hours, 52 minutes, and 50 seconds of debris we'll be traveling through, with the center of the peak at 7:21 UT would mean
But my question now is : Or, is there that much debris left behind from all the orbits Comet 209P/Linear has made before now?

But if that were true, wouldn't we have already experienced some of its meteorite shower during previous passes through its' orbital trails?
51 posted on 02/28/2014 6:03:38 PM PST by Yosemitest (It's Simple ! Fight, ... or Die !)
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To: Yosemitest
From the International Meteor Organization (IMO):

"Possible meteor activity due to Comet 209P/LINEAR: Of greatest potential significance this quarter, indeed this year, is an encounter between the Earth and a number of dust trails left by Comet 209P/LINEAR at its perihelion returns within twenty years to either side of 1900 AD. Several predictions have already been issued for what may occur, and further updates are likely nearer the event. Based on the most recent independent calculations by Esko Lyytinen, Mikhail Maslov and J´er´emie Vaubaillon, the strongest activity from this source should happen on May 24, most likely between about 07h to 08h UT from a radiant near the borders of Lynx, Ursa Major and Camelopardalis, quite close to o UMa. The predicted radiant locations fall within a few degrees of α = 124° , δ = +79° . Timings in UT for the centre of the strongest activity overall are around 07h 03m (Lyytinen), 07h 21m (Maslov) and 07h 40m (Vaubaillon) respectively. However, much is unknown about this comet, including its dust productivity and even its precise orbit. Consequently, while tentative proposals have been made that ZHRs at best could reach 100+, perhaps up to storm proportions, based purely on the relative approach distances between the Earth and the computed dust trails, these are far from certain. The strongest activity could be short lived too, lasting perhaps between a few minutes to a fraction of an hour only. In addition, the number of dust trails involved means there may be more than one peak, and that others could happen outside the “key hour” period, so observers at suitable locations are urged to be vigilant for as long as possible to either side of the predicted event to record whatever takes place. Remember, there are no guarantees in meteor astronomy! Lunar observing circumstances are very positive, with May’s new Moon on the 28th. The north-circumpolar radiant area for many sites means the three main geographic zones where most radio observers are located – Europe, North America and Japan – should be able to follow all that occurs, interference permitting. The time of year means the northern nights are close to their shortest for visual and imaging work, but the predicted strongest activity timings fall perfectly for night-time coverage all across North America and the nearby oceans to its east and west. See WGN and watch out for online news closer to the event for additional information."

http://www.imo.net/calendar/2014

No expert here by any means. I'm just looking at the satellite images from the youtube vids and seeing the large still visible but extended debris left over from what at one time must been a single body comet. As the piece above says, there are a lot of unknowns. One unknown: will the slight coma/tail brighten more? If it does that will more 'dust' is being generated and blown away giving us a chance of a better light show in the night sky.

This isn't a danger to earth due to the small size of the particles. What is, is if any large size 'stragglers' from the main debris field impacts the earth. The odds of that increase due to a relative close approach of the main debris field itself to earth and because it is a field of debris and not a single body.

It would only take one of those pieces of the original comet of significant size impacting a populated area to create major havoc. It's pretty obvious a debris field is what we're seeing on the satellite images. It seems the composition, size of the field, and layout is either unknown or not being released. I'm not sure why it seems NASA likes to sit on the data nowadays. They were really forthcoming with info on a asteroid that missed earth by half the distance to the sun recently

Artist rendering of an asteroid field:

On May 29, 2014, the comet will pass 0.0554 AU (8,290,000 km; 5,150,000 mi) from the Earth (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/209P/LINEAR

That will be the main body of debris, passing ahead of and after dropping below the earth's orbit, with the earth actually passing through the trailing dust trail a few days before. The question I have is just how far back/out from the main body, are pieces of significant size?

Another update from Jessie: Linear Debris Update. Unbelievable Charts.

53 posted on 02/28/2014 8:28:06 PM PST by Errant (Surround yourself with intelligent and industrious people who help and support each other.)
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