[Errant]

I understand what you're suggesting but read Mikhail Maslov's Introducton to meteor activity forecasting.

I'm not too sure how well his model theory would apply in this case, since this is more or less a debris field similar to what remains of ISON.

[Yosemitest]

His forecasting takes into consideration the particles' size and how they get separated into different parts of the trailing tail.
The solar winds, or as he calls them "non-gravitational forces" or "radiation pressure" have little effect on those particles.

But it's only a model.
And he admits, "but as before, for their improvement, new observations are very necessary. "

[Yosemitest]

Can you tell me how to read figure 4 on page 6 of this .pdf ?
I want to know the sizes of those particles in real numbers.
I'm guessing the "radius (m)" is meters.
But I don't understand "log10(radius(m)" or "All Weighted: Ten bins per decade of radius(m)"