The question you have to ask in any SHTF scenario is “what will the military do?” The Army and Marine Corps (including Guard and Reserve components) have 100+ ground force battalions and plenty of fuel, rations, ammunition and air support. Most of the population and industrial infrastructure is within range of naval gunnery and all of it is reachable by strategic bombers and fighter-bombers. Unless the military stays in its quarters, or completely dissolve with their armories and storehouses somehow destroyed, what those battalions, ships and planes do is going to determine how it goes.
(You don’t need to secure every 40 acre spread in the middle of nowhere or every ghetto housing project, and you probably don’t even need to control any of them — you just have to control infrastructure for food, fuel and media, and that’s more than enough to achieve whatever disposition of chaos you choose.)
Our full military force couldn't manage to control a few 8th century fanatics in Afghanistan. They sure can't do it here.
/johnny
That is a factor of course but there are far far more armed citizens then there are military and police forces.
At least 20 to 1.
There are a million variables and all you can really do is educate yourself and try to prepare to make the best decisions you can when stuff happens.