Solar Flare poses huge threat: Column
Excerpt:
Modern electronics are a lot more sensitive, of course, and a similar event today would fry computers, cell phones, new cars and more. More worryingly, it would probably melt major transformers in the power net, transformers that take months or years to replace and that are expensive enough that few spares are kept. Big chunks of the planet -- all of North America, for example -- might be without electricity for a year or longer.
The disruption would kill a lot of people -- some quickly, as medical devices failed, others later as food supplies and clean water became scarce. Without electricity, pretty much everything in our civilization comes to a stop. The economic damage would be incalculable.
We don't know how common Carrington Events are, since they probably wouldn't have made much of an impact in pre-industrial years. But in 1989 a smaller flare wiped out Hydro Quebec's grid, leaving many Canadians without power for an extended period.
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There's now a bill aimed at doing something to harden our systems and prepare for such events. It's called the Secure High-voltage Infrastructure for Electricity from Lethal Damage Act (SHIELD Act for short, in one of those now-unavoidable legislative acronyms). It is aimed at seeing that those big transformers basically get the heavy-duty equivalent of surge protectors to prevent damage in the event of either a solar storm or EMP attack.
I've read a number of analyses that claim major transformers are at risk from both a Carrington event as well as EMP attack. Is there data that supports the contention that major transformers are not vulnerable to either?
Yeah, I saw that one - that article also perpetuated the misconception that Solar Flares will blow up electronics.
“But in 1989 a smaller flare wiped out Hydro Quebec’s grid, leaving many Canadians without power for an extended period. “
“extended period” that outage lasted 9 hours.
“I’ve read a number of analyses that claim major transformers are at risk from both a Carrington event as well as EMP attack.”
What you say is correct. They are vulnerable to both. I never said they weren’t vulnerable - I said a solar flare will not damage electronics.
However, we now have lots of warning when a solar flare is headed our way, unlike in 1989. We can react and respond like we have never been able to before. GIC mitigation must still be (and is being) pursued.
However, even a Carrington Event or greater is unlikely to completely destroy the grid as has been advocated on thread.