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To: Vaquero
From today (3/3/2013) to the announced date of Jan 5, 2018 is just 1768 days.

For some historical travel times to put things into perspective:

Mariner 7 was FAST, with a travel time of 131 days.
Viking 2 was SLOW, with a travel time of 360 days.

Now, if this mission intends to SEND SUPPLIES IN ADVANCE, then assuming you want "confirmation" of safe arrival of supplies, and assuming you are "oofing" a pretty big payload of supplies, you would have to launch them close to one year prior to the manned mission. That cuts the available time to have the mission planned and "pad ready" to about 1400 days.

Assuming one year for training on using all the equipment and vehicles, that pushes having equipment and mission objectives and procedures pretty well mapped out in about 1040 days.

For additional perspective on very large and expensive projects, James Cameron's Titanic cost over 200 million dollars in 1995 money, started production with actual Titanic wreck footage in 1995 and project planning, then took more than 100 days for set and prop creation (starting around May, 1996, then 160 days of filming, then even more for editing, post production and then marketing for a premier on Nov 1, 1997. And that was for a FAKE ship.

If the mission does not call for supplies in advance, that buys you about a year for additional planning, building and training, but it means you must have a vehicle platform that can TAKE EVERYTHING YOU NEED AT ONCE. This is a tall, tall order, and would generally mean staged assembly in low Earth orbit. That then entails the pre-planning and production of orbital assembly vehicles, tools and techniques, as well as the training for the construction crew.

My take is that unless these guys have a fully defined mission that they can "take off the shelf" and start TOMORROW with real hardware and personnel, the 2018 date is not realistic. My 2 cents, anyway, but it is fun to read about.
13 posted on 03/03/2013 11:26:18 AM PST by Rebel_Ace (Tags?!? Tags?!? We don' neeeed no stinkin' Tags!)
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To: Rebel_Ace

this is a flyby. it is scheduled for 2018 as this is the closest that Mars and Earth will be till the 2030s

this will be a self contained (enough supplies on board and reusing water)tour of Mars, with no orbit, but a slingshot around mars back to the earth so the trip will only last 1 year.


15 posted on 03/03/2013 11:33:56 AM PST by Vaquero (Don't pick a fight with an old guy. If he is too old to fight, he'll just kill you.)
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