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I like Glenn Beck's idea of going the 10th Amendment route first before secession although generally, I'm for the latter as well. The point is, that you agree with it, is the only way to answer the question is is secession does accour, will it be peaceful? If not and there is a fight, the seceding party must be able to either win outright (if the Confederates took DC and Lincoln as a POW) or at least be able to hold them off on their own or prove to the world they can stand up and hopefully get help from those sympathetic to the cause. If the South won a few key battles and/or Gettysburg, I think the North would have had to deal, they would be more drained.

It's like the old adage, if you're going to defy the king, you either have to wipe him out to the point where you make him say "Uncle" or make it so hard that he sees that it would be a lost cause and he'll leave you alone and go your way.