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Rush Limbaugh nailed it back in December.

VAN SUSTEREN: Why has Governor Mitt Romney not had a so-called "surge"? We hear "surge" used with basically every Republican nominee, but you don't see that "surge" with Governor Romney.

RUSH: Well, every poll I've seen of Republican primary voters, he can't crack 30 percent. It has been curious. And you look at it from the reverse, 70 percent of Republican voters want somebody else. This is why we have the phenomenon of the "Not-Romney." Bachmann was the "Not-Romney" for a while. Herman Cain was the "Not-Romney." Now Newt is the "Not-Romney." I think it boils down to something that's not complicated at all. Republican primary voters are conservative. They don't believe that Romney is. They believe that he will stick a finger in the air and moisten it and see which way the winds are blowing and try to get in that direction. They remember that Romney said he believes in global warming and he believes that man is causing it. Well, conservatives don't believe that. They believe it's a hoax. Conservatives know that the whole story of man-made global warming is a hoax. And they're not going to get excited by a candidate who is trying to gain favor with non-Republican primary voters by articulating that stuff.

Here's the big problem, Greta, for the Republicans. And I am a lone wolf on this. The rule of thumb in elections, both parties, 40 percent are going to vote Democrat automatically, whatever you do, 40 percent are going to vote Republican, automatic, no matter what you do. And in the middle, who do we have? The precious, God love them, independents and the moderates. And they are the targets. They are the focus of every election. And our brilliant campaign consultants tell our candidates they are the ones that know how to go get a majority of those independents. And we have, as Republicans, put ourselves in prison to this whole silly notion that you only win elections by moving to the center and getting great independents. Fine and dandy, but if you squander your base in the process, you haven't a prayer.

Rush Goes On the Record with Fox News Channel's Greta Van Susteren