LOL I love this site..you guys come up with these photos, I have no idea where you get them from but they are always SPOT ON
Nate is an excellent statistician. But his problem is the polls he is using as an input into his model. If a poll is wrong, that makes the entire model suspect. This is the difference between his baseball work, and politics. In baseball, we know the players data (hits, RBI, HR, etc) to put into the model. In baseball, it would be like polling all the other coaches/players. How many RBI’s do you think Jay Bruce is going to hit this year? That is the fault with his polling model.
And DUH.... if the turnout swings D+3 to R+1, even I can predict it will greatly increase one parties chances.