“A 12’ surge at Kings Pt and 11’ at Battery Park will cause a LOT of damage...much more than 12’ in MS.”
Look at the surge maps more carefully. The probability is very low for >10’ surge anywhere. That number is the worst-case scenario, not the most likely scenario. It is much more likely that the actual surge in most spots affected by surge will be in the 1’ to 3’ range, which is a hassle for physical damage to homes and businesses, but not what one would consider life threatening.
I have a friend in Port Washington right on the bay who will most likely get water in his first floor, which totally sucks. But when Irene went through last year, the prediction then was for 8’ surge and yet he got 0 feet of flooding. The water didn’t even get onto his lawn. So the models can be totally wrong if you are looking at the worst case only, like you are.
More lives will likely be lost in the days after the storm further to the north due to flash flooding.
First...as I said in a post...if the timing is off by 6 hours...surge will be 8-9' max. But certainly not 1-3'. The battery ALREADY has 2' of surge....with a max high tide of 7 1/2' a couple of hours ago. This, of course, includes surge+MHHW.
Most likely scenario is this: TIDAL DEPARTURES...BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TONIGHT DURING HIGH TIDE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES...3 TO 4.5 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES MONDAY MORNING...AND POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 11 FT ABOVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE RELEGATED TO NEW YORK HARBOR...WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS...AND PECONIC BAY.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=map®ion=ne
And another:
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/gmap3/
Your friend on the north shore of Long Island did not face the surge. A few of my neighbors on the south shore had two feet of water in their houses.