Pretty much every OH poll has a D+ sample greater than 2008. (wasn’t CNN/Time today D+9) I just don’t see that happening this time. All the early/absentee vote totals are much improved for Romney over Obama.
OH has been the big one. It’s the one I have worried about for a couple years. Obama has come to OH more times than any other state, BEFORE the election cycle started. They knew that OH would be political ground zero.
Regardless of the actual top line of any poll in the last 3 weeks, they have all moved in Romney’s direction. Romney is winning independents in every national and state poll by double digits. That in and of itself, translates to an Indy swing of 20-25 points from 2008 (and indy’s make up about 30% of the total vote).
The Romney campaign seems to be hitting on all cylinders at the right time. Obama seems to be doing gimmicks and talking about petty issues. Ryan today in Cleveland gave a great high level poverty speech. Romney is giving an economic policy speech in Iowa Friday.
Have we forgotten the voter intensity in 2010? Was that a rebellion against democrats in general or a mid term referendum on Obama? And are those 2010 voters any less upset, any less intense than 2 years ago? I think not.
For all the worriers.... which campaign would you rather have right now???? Romney or Obama....
Undecideds will vote for,the perceived winner.. They want to feel good about themselves.