And there is one pattern that is apparent if you look that the numbers...Gallup routinely underestimates Republican numbers and over estimates democrap numbers.
What on earth is wrong with Investor’s Business Daily???!
I guess we will know on Nov 7th. But I think Gallup is slightly over estimating Romney’s lead, and most of the rest are under estimating his lead. I believe he is in the +4~5 range right now nationally.I have thought it would end up being a 52-47 or 52-48 Romney win with 300+ EVs.
Regardless of poll or actual number, every poll is trending Romney big time the last 2 weeks. Virtually every poll shows him moving at least 4 pts.
And this movement seems sustained. We started to see slight movement right before debate #1, and it has accelerated since. And it doesn’t seem to be a debate bump. I think we have seen a fundamental shift in the election. Maybe Romney’s strong Debate#1 pulled the shift ahead.
Even the media and others are starting to acknowledge R&R are winning and have a good chance Nov 6th. If there is no major shift coming out of the final debate, this will begin to “wrap up” pretty quick. The last week will be more about down ballot help and of course GOTV.
You are most correct....From Eisenhower’s re-election in 1956 (excluding Bush in 2004), the incumbent has also received about 2% less in the actual vote than their final poll...so count on Zero to slightly underperform his final poll number...
***Gallup routinely underestimates Republican numbers and over estimates democrap numbers****
Right - Fox always mentions those two numbers but the Gallup
guy disputed the “Democrat weighted”- responders. Stated that they don’t ask for Party affiliation - only:
Registered to vote.
Likely to vote -or- enthusiasm.
Party registration is listed as a ‘foot note’.
FWIW
If you throw out 1936, yes...otherwise no.
Overestimate R by 0.33 pts...throw out 1936, it’s -0.03.
Underestimate D by 0.24 pts...throw out 1936, it’s +0.12
(an overestimate).
Overestimate liberal (Henry Wallace-McCarthy-Nader) by 0.21, or 1.3 if you consider they competed in only 3 elections.
Overestimate Dixiecrat-American (Thurmond-George Wallace)
by 0.05, or 0.5 if you consider they competed in only 2.
Underestimate Neutral (Anderson-Perot) by -0.26, or -1.67 if you consider they competed in only 3....almost entirely due to 1992.
Underestimate others by -0.09, or -0.24 for the 7 elections they appeared on the radar.