Has an “October Surprise” ever been effectively executed against a Republican candidate for President, or is it just a bogey-man created by defeatists?
The minion of Satan Chris Lehane dumped then-Gov. Bush’s DUI on the media the weekend before the 2000 election. President Bush was up 3% in the popular vote at the time, and barely hung on to win the Electoral College.
Just a few days before the 2000 election, info surfaced regarding a Bush DUI many years before. It hurt Bush, probably made the election so close that the Supreme Court had to intervene. Of course, Bush prevailed.
That is a good question. I have actually asked a blogger to look into this. I may look into this this weekend.
The closest an October surprise has come to defeating a Republican was the drunk-driving story Al Gore dropped against George Bush the Friday or Saturday before the election.
Bush was up in the polls, but didn’t have any time to respond to the drunk driving story, thus the final vote was closer than it should have been, and we had the Florida debacle.
October surprises are almost moot now that early voting smears “election day” all over October and November. Can’t change a vote if you’ve already cast it.
No.
Ford, GHW Bush, Dole and McCain were not defeated by any last minute revelations.
Some argue Goldwater was defeated by the "Daisy Girl" TV commercial which first aired in September 1964.
But Goldwater was already trailing badly at that point.
Dewey, Wilkie, Landon and Hoover also couldn't complain of any October surprises either.
It changed the polls significantly, he had been leading in the polls and was cruising until then. I think it caused Gore to win the popular vote and come within a hair in Florida.
Oh, heck yeah. In 2008 the October surprise was McCain't endorsing Barack Hussein Slobama.