Keep your eyes on the numbers with the registered voters ~ and check how many get excluded because they had answers/responses that didn't fit the paradigm ~
This has nothing whatsoever to do with the Senate and the House ~ they've been delinked and uncoupled ever since the other candidates decided to quit running with Romney in the race. It's all statistical methodology, and the guys doing the polls are finding it difficult to tell us what's happening ~ because it hasn't happened before.
Just remember that 4 years ago Romney ended up in the 20% range against McCain ~ and that's where he started out this year ~ anything much over that reflects the Mormon factor or election fraud in Virginia.
The guy has 20% of the Republican base behind him. That's not enough to run a campaign on to say nothing of winning.
On the other hand Obama has been below 50% for quite some time and is expected to do nothing but drop lower ~ internal polling by the Democrats may already show some 30% states creeping into the stats ~ and that's just his own peeps with no Republicans in the mix.
It is conceivable that both these guys could end up with about 20% of the possible vote ~ or, a grand total of less than 50% of all the votes.
You can't claim a Mandate of Heaven on that basis.
We can avoid all of this if Romney will simply step aside and let ANYBODY ELSE in the race,.
See what I'm saying?
Romney will not step aside. (Why would he?) And there is nobody else available to conservatives this year. (Who would it be?)