I live in VA and predict Zero holds it. Demographics favor a black democrat. He wins on race alone.
All statewide races can be and have been very narrowly decided. One slip up by a candidate can spell disaster ~ and that has happened from time to time. Craig Deeds was a good example of what happens when you are a Democrat who sounds too Conservative for average Democrat voters.
He lost big time.
The guy he ran against in the primary was the doufous who used to be the DNC head. He was white. He was defeated by that black voting base primarily because he was felt to be an outsider that the big dogs were trying to shove down their throats.
Romney has wired himself up for the exact same problem in Virginia. ALL the blacks will turn out ~ so it won't take much in the way of Conservative non-compliance with the big dogs to reveal that Romney has no base of support here outside the party Bourbon class.
Romney could very well lose the whole election because he and his little buddies showed their asses in Virginia.
Yup, we saw them ~ we don't like 'em. This'll be a reprise of the Democrat Gubernatorial Primary, only with Republicans.
God forbid that happens! then Romney would have to take either Florida or Pennsylvania to make up for it.,,,but isnt Virgina a very red state?