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Gerard says:
I still find the predictions of De Jager most accurate and in contrast to Svalgaard he does see an important role for solar fluctuations in the earth’s climate. The recent warming period until 1999 is in his view not unusual given the variations in solar forcing through the last centuries.
De Jager, Duhau, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestial Physics (2008):
“We find that the system is presently undergoing a transition from the recent Grand Maximum to another regime. This transition started in 2000 and it is expected to end around the maximum of cycle 24 foreseen for 2014, with a maximum sunspot number Rmax= 68+/-17. At that time a period of lower solar activity will start. That period will be one of regular oscillations, as occurred between 1730 and 1923. The first of these oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810, in which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might develop. This moderate-to-low-activity episode is expected to last for at least one Gleissberg cycle (60-100 years).”
De Jager adapted this expectation in 2010 based on new observations and better interpretations to an Rmax of 55. Also the Grand Minimum is expected to be deeper and Maunder like.
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Allan MacRae says:
MarkW says: May 3, 2012 at 9:40 am
Allan says: “Serious global cooling could significantly decrease the global grain harvest, which would have major impacts on humanity and the environment.”
Mark says: “There’s plenty of spare (agricultural) capacity should global temperatures turn down.”
OK Mark, let me try to better quantify the question:
1. IF Earth returns to the colder global temperatures of the Maunder Minimum circa 1700, what will be the impact on the global grain harvest?
How long would it take for agriculture to adapt and what grain stores would be required to mitigate shortfalls prior to such adaptation?
What other impacts would matter – e.g. energy supply?
Are we currently capable of managing the impacts of this natural global cooling, or not?
2. Same question for the Dalton Minimum circa 1800.
Does anyone know if this question has been posed and adequately answered amidst all the billions of dollars that have been spent on global warming (aka “climate change”) research?
Because, based on the evidence to date, the catastrophic humanmade global warming crisis does not exist, and natural global cooling, whether moderate or severe, is increasingly probable.
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Here is something I just found that I want to remember:
http://ktwop.wordpress.com/2012/03/10/solar-cycles-and-the-landscheidt-minimum/