*************************************EXCERPT*******************************************
Samurai says:
You almost have to feel sorry for the poor Warmunistas. Everything was going so well for them until: SC23 turned out to be so weak and now SC24 looks to be the lowest in 100 years.
To make matters worse, CERN was finally allowed to conduct the CLOUD experiment and it turns out GCRs do, in fact, nucleate inorganic compounds, which create increased cloud cover and cooler global temperatures.
I can’t wait for Svensmark peer-pending paper to come out, showing the evidence that +50 nanometer cloud seeds are possible in the Scensmark Effect.
Does anyone have any news approximately when Svensmark paper will be out? TIA.
**************************************EXCERPT*******************************************
Allan MacRae says:
blogoriginator says: May 3, 2012 at 12:45 am
Can anybody tell me what kind of Global Temperature we’re facing in the next ten years?
____________________
History – 2002:
On 1 September 2002, I wrote in an article in the Calgary Herald:
” If solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature [as I believe it is] rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.”
This conclusion was based on decades of study, and a phone call to Dr. Tim Patterson, Carleton University Paleoclimatologist, who had studied natural warming and cooling cycles that he believed were related to the Gleissberg (Wolf) Cycle.
We were also aware of Hathaway’s now-failed prediction of SC24 peaking at Tmax ~160, and the prediction by NASA? that SC25 would be very weak.
At the time, I was (and still am) unsure if the warming and cooling cycle were better related to the PDO than the Gleissberg – If it is the PDO, global cooling could commence sooner, perhaps about now.
____________________
Update – 2012:
Recent information include the much-lower prediction of a Rmax of ~60 for SC24, and recent work, which I have scanned but not studied, on solar impacts on Earth’s climate.
Accordingly, I have little choice but to hold to my 2002 statement – the next natural global cooling period will commence by 2020-2030.
Caveat: It is possible we were “late” in this prediction, and that global cooling has already begun, but it is not yet serious or significant.
Will global cooling become serious and significant? I do not know, but I think this is a very real possibility – there is a significant probability of serious global cooling commencing by 2020-2030, or sooner.
____________________
Implications of Serious Global Cooling:
Serious global cooling could significantly decrease the global grain harvest, which would have major impacts on humanity and the environment.
If this occurs, based on current political realities, humanity will be woefully unprepared. It would, in my opinion, be sensible to start now making cost-effective preparations for this possibility.
These measures would include ensuring that stockpiles of grain are adequate, and accelerating the further development of frost-resistant crops.
Is this an alarmist position? Another misguided application of the “Precautionary Principle”? I suggest not – first, the net costs of my modest proposal are not that great, especially when one considers the huge amount of American corn that is currently being squandered in corn ethanol production. My proposal costs much less than the very costly, inefficient and self-serving “green energy” schemes of the global warming movement, Furthermore, I have no financial interest in promoting climate alarmism, and a sincere interest in reducing the needless suffering of humanity and the resulting destruction of the environment.