Posted on 04/22/2012 6:33:41 AM PDT by lbryce
To what extent is demography destiny in politics? That’s the question that Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin’s much-discussed analysis of the 2012 presidential race puts front and center.
Teixeira and Halpin posit that the balance of two forces, “the shifting demographic balance of the American electorate, and the objective reality and voter perception of the economy in key battleground states,” will likely determine the outcome of Obama’s reelection. At that level of generality, it’s hard to disagree. But I would argue that while demography matters, it is not as significant as Teixeira and Halpin believe. Yes, it makes a difference that Obama’s winning 2008 coalition relied on growing segments of the electorate while the traditional, mostly white Republican base is fated to shrink, election after election. But other things matter at least as much—especially the impact of the past three years on the orientation and enthusiasm of the Obama coalition, for reasons not all of which are rooted in the economy. Put simply: If Obama’s margins shrink among young people, Hispanics, and other key parts of his base while disappointment depresses their turnout, the falloff in Obama’s support will swamp the modest post-2008 demographic shifts in his favor.
While Teixeira and Halpin don’t disagree with my thesis (it’s a matter of simple arithmetic, after all), they systematically underplay the evidence suggesting that it may well come to pass. To redress the imbalance, let’s look at the most recent Gallup numbers from the week of November 21 to 27. Obama’s overall approval rating stood at 43 percent, as it has for more than a month—a level inconsistent with a successful reelection campaign unless there’s a significant third party candidate on the right.
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So you can put forth any sort of crazy conspiracy theory just as long as you follow it with, ‘Just sayin.’
I am forever indebted to your stunning intellect.
I wasn’t trying to be snarky...it’s just that the Warren Commission finding seems unbelievable...more so fifty years out.
LBJ was headed for hearings in the Senate beginning early in December ‘63...as the Bobby Baker scandal was being restirred by the GOP before the ‘64 elections.
Kennedy had already told people closest to him that Johnson would not be on the ticket next time. Terry Sanford of NC was the likely replacement.
I think Johnson and a few close friends nailed him. Of course you are entitled to your opinion :)
I wasn’t trying to be snarky...it’s just that the Warren Commission finding seems unbelievable...more so fifty years out.
LBJ was headed for hearings in the Senate beginning early in December ‘63...as the Bobby Baker scandal was being restirred by the GOP before the ‘64 elections.
Kennedy had already told people closest to him that Johnson would not be on the ticket next time. Terry Sanford of NC was the likely replacement.
I think Johnson and a few close friends nailed him. Of course you are entitled to your opinion :)
I will hold my nose and vote for Mitten—He’s got to be better than old Obama—At least Ann will make a better First Lady. Give Mittens a Tea Party congress and lets see what he can do. Better than anyone the MSM has selected—I have a gut reaction he might be better than people think—Remember they thought little of Reagan too.
you also have to consider that his polling should go up another five points when the VP comes in play. especially if he chooses someone like Mitch Daniels or Paul Ryan. {not sure if Rubio is bluffing,maybe he is just messin with Obama and stalling so the media wont bash him for the next 6 months)
I can hardly stand the sight of Mitt (as it was with McCain too), but will too hold my nose and vote for him. He can’t be any worse than Obama. No way. Obama is anti-America and anti-everything that made this county work then and now.
If anything, seeing media and acedemia that I detest far more than Obama go into meltdown after an epic loss will be worth 4 years of a RINO like Mitt
There is only one demographic that matters. As dear old Dad always said, “Once the parasites outnumber the hosts, it’s all over.”
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