The ‘10 election removed generations of Rat politicians in PA. The Fast Eddie machine is gone. Obummer won’t have it here to help him win this state that had a preference for Hitlery to begin with. Shale gas is also big here and the Obummer EPA is trying to shut it down as well. It will not be the easy ride in PA that he had the last time. I would consider PA to be in the toss up column for sure.
Your analysis makes a lot of sense, and I am glad to hear the state’s “environment” has changed as it has. As you mentioned, shale gas will be a big deal to those people too which would hurt Obama’s chances there as well. Shale gas won’t mean so much to Philadelphia though, (urban, small parcels that won’t see the same royalties, etc.) that little rat hole city that always turns Pennsylvania away from where the state as a whole wants to go. I’m glad I don’t live in PA as I would be so angry every election when 95% of the acreage of PA votes with some sense and then that 5% comes in with all the people there and screws up any common sense they have.
Here’s hoping more of that 95% land mass will come out and overcome that Democratic stronghold in Philadelphia! :)