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The other dynamic that is missing is an in-your-face foreign policy crisis. Carter was utterly impotent and inept in taking on Khomeini and the thugs (including Ahmadinejad) he sent to kidnap our embassy personnel. That went on for over a year leading up to the election and people simply lost what little confidence they had in Carter as an effective leader. It's true that Carter was either leading in the polls or the election was very close right up until almost the day of the election, with Reagan barely inching ahead in some polls the final week. I read a story that the night before the election Carter's people took a poll and it showed that Reagan's lead was blowing wide open, and they attributed it to the hostages thing.

Could something similar happen this time? I kind of doubt it. Obammy has been a disaster in terms of foreign policy but I don't see anyone out there who is willing to take on the US in terms of a military-hostage situation, largely thanks to decisive action by GWB in that area. There will likely be an airstrike by Israel against Iran but Obangi will, as usually, sit on his skinny a$$ during that. About the only thing I see as possible that will knock Odouchebag off his stride to re-election would be gasoline in the $5 to $6 range. Unless it gets to $5 I don't think people will care. Already we're seeing the attitude of "Oh, it's only $4, that isn't bad, and besides, it isn't Obama's fault." Idiots.

Very good point. I was 12 when on the same day Reagan was both inaugurated and the hostages were finally released, and I distinctly remember thinking to myself: wow, these Iranian dudes must be sh*t scared of this cat named R. W. Reagan, whereas they weren't scared a whit by Jimmy C.

Viz. Obama's foreign policy CV, unfortunately for me, I traffic in a lot of liberal circles, and I'm continually dumbfounded when they say "yeah, Obama hasn't been all that successful domestically, but look at what he's done in terms of foreign policy."

This means he was at the helm when the US Navy finally put two in Bin Laden's hat and when we withdrew from Iraq.

This, to them, is proof positive of a Churchillian stature on the world stage.

Netanyahu is no fool and is very knowledgeable of U.S. domestic politics. The Israelis will not strike against the Iranians until they have the U.S. firmly behind them. With Obama, Netanyahu cannot be sure; with Romney or any possible compromise candidate coming out of the GOP candidate, he and his country would be better off doing what is needed for their security. For the present, it may be in Israel's interest to keep the Iranians roiled up to keep crude oil prices high or drive them up, so as to help unseat Obama.

However, Carter is not Obama. Whatever his flaws, Carter knew what ethical behavior was and would not rely on strong arm tactics. Obama is a devoted student of both Saul Alinsky and Al Capone, the "Chicago way". Also, Romney is not the inspirational leader Reagan was. He is the stereotype "checked pants Republican" Mike Savage rants about. However, if he is smart enough to choose a young movement conservative who is articulate, morally upright, and financially clean (Paul Ryan?), it could partially offset the disdain of the Gingrich and Santorum supporters. Also, he needs to keep Ron Paul and his followers from supporting the Libertarian Presidential candidate (good luck on that!).

Additionally, we have a de facto Stimulus III from the Fed that has pumped money into the economy, causing a rising tide raising all boats. Stimulus III may have peaked too soon in the late winter/early spring. If the economic statistics start sliding again, Obama's reelection chances will slide accordingly.

I see the same thing as in 2008. I wondered then when the economy would tank and when people would react to the price of fuel. It did tank and they did finally react. The vacation season in 2008 made highways and camping areas look like ghost towns. Sure some travel continued but not a whole lot. This summer will be worse, much worse. We have not yet recovered from the recession. It is all a house of cards.

For now though, you are right, they don’t seem to care about the price of fuel but I think they are feeling it. My renters left for a worse house 5 miles closer to town and work all over fuel prices. Shocked me since the rent house is dirt cheap to live in, has new paint, carpet, HVAC, dishwasher, fans etc., is on an acre lot and I pay to have the yard mowed. Five bills a month.