For deep Blue states suffering from high gas prices, the Democratic playbook will emphasize union solidarity, liberal social issues, and Obama’s efforts to rein in oil companies and find alternatives to oil. This will hold the line and carry those states for Obama in 2012, but the effort required and the fraying at the edges of the Democratic coalition will take a toll in other races. And no matter what happens to Obama, 2012 will not otherwise be a good year for the Democrats and 2014 will be a disaster for them across the board if Obama is reelected.
2014 will be meaningless. The Congress will have been neutered totally, national healthcare will be a fact of life and we will probably be getting close to rule by decree and President-for-life.