Lincoln was screwed. To maintain the Union, he had to use totalitarian-type powers to fight the secessionists, setting the precedent for nearly unlimited Federal power which haunts us today. However, had he allowed the Confederacy to secede peacefully, the two sides would have clashed on the battlefield eventually as both the North and the South sought expansion to the west.
He was faced with a true no-win situation, the source of which was institutionalized slavery, and that plain fact cannot be avoided.
If the South was allowed to secede, the Federal Government's revenue (no income tax at that time!) would have dropped by more than half. With a 10% tariff and control of the mouth of the Mississippi River, Northern ports would have been empty and the South would have controlled most of the trade west of the Mississippi.
Secession was simply not an option. It would have beggared the Federal government and the rest of the North.
See my #62 above regarding what I think Lincoln should have done.
I came to this conclusion while writing my response - I say that to establish that my previous question was an honest one, not intended as a gateway to interject my already formulated “great idea”.