One thing people should realize is the reason Japan took the risk. Japan has few mineral deposits to support their industry. They went after Australia for that very reason.
Currently, China is going full-tilt to lock up minerals world-wide. If they can make the case to Japan that they can replace the US in that regard, at a substantial savings, we would face a huge military and status loss of enormous proportions. Japan is tired of their 10-15 yr recession, I’m sure. Their natural aggression may be running out of patience.
ping
The oil embargo by the US was the major factor; after they evolved into a modern country, they were expected to return to the Stone Age. Indonesia was the solution to that problem; it provided the oil to keep them going.
You can bet that if the US had no oil we would have invaded the Arabian Peninsula during the embargo in the 1970s.