Thanks Jotmo. Let’s get some prognosticators in here. :’)
Standalone GPS Systems ... E-Readers ... Feature Phones ... Low-End Digital Cameras ... DVD Players ... Recordable CDs and DVDs ... Video Game Consoles
The problem with these lists is, there are shades of gray, so what used to be one thing is now something else, marketing notwithstanding.
The DVD player plays DVD, CD, and that’s about it; BluRay players will supplant the DVD player, but it’s not a sea change like the vanishing VCR in its many formats. And there are zero tape-based videocams now, because of flash memory.
Some more suggested for the list:
1. Tower CPUs have already disappeared, but the soon-to-follow companies still trying to make and sell them haven’t figured that out. We’ll see no more towers,probably within two years at the longest. The ITX boards designed for netbooks have been in use in home CPUs for some time already, but there’s been a sturdy resistance to making the CPU box much smaller, since a smaller box doesn’t look like it should be that expensive. I suspect that’s why Apple’s going out of business. ;’)
Furthermore, home computing needs will be more than met by the wave of tiny CPUs that will arrive in great numbers during the next few years. These devices have already been demo’d, and consist of a flash-drive-sized (or slightly larger) box with an HDMI port and a USB port, and maybe a RJ-45. They won’t even need extra juice, drawing power from either a powered USB hub or the HDMI port. A device like this with Bluetooth (see number seven) or other short-range wireless built in wouldn’t even need USB, and with the 802.11 wireless, wouldn’t even need the RJ-45. Flat screen TVs already have rudimentary www stuff built in (99 percent is for streaming media content), so it’s unlikely that separate boxes will even be needed soon.
2. Incandescent bulbs. They burn out too fast, cost more to operate, run too hot.
3. LED household bulbs — CF bulbs put out more light per watt, and cost a fraction of the LED bulbs. Last thing I need to spend $30 on is an underpowered LED “floodlight”, and I certainly wouldn’t install on outside for fear of theft. If the gubmint required oranges-to-oranges specs on all bulbs sold, there’d be no LED market at all. It’s unlikely that the price of LED bulbs will fall much more, give or take a breakthrought that makes them a one-for-one replacement for CFs, halogens, or incandescents.
4. Electric autos (reasons are obvious to anyone).
5. Fighter planes and bombers — UAVs will replace the former, guided missiles have long ago replaced the latter.
6. Tanks — tank-killer weapons have been manufactured by the jillions, and IEDs are even more commonplace. A $10 million tank can be destroyed for a couple of thousand dollars, at most. I should point out that I’ve been saying this for some time now.
7. Wireless standards currently in use will vanish and be merged into a joint, fast, all-purpose, and evolving standard.
8. USB 3.0 will replace SATA, eSATA, what’s left of PATA and IDE, what’s left of Firewire 400 and 800, and every other internal and external interface standard that uses wires. USB 4.0 will never come out.
9. The Democratic Party.
10. The Republican Party
Oh, please, can you add the GOP to that list too?
>8. USB 3.0 will replace SATA, eSATA, what’s left of PATA and IDE, what’s left of Firewire 400 and 800, and every other internal and external interface standard that uses wires. USB 4.0 will never come out.
I hope not; USB isn’t that great of a transport-system. Sure it works fine for a keyboard and mouse, but FireWire really is worlds better (the power-supplied by the bus is more reasonable, the speeds are [in practice] better, the multiple-device communication is better, there’s even guarantees in its spec for A/V bandwidth)... it really is disappointing that the HDTV market [here] went with the HDMI connector as the Asian markets have some really nice [consumer-level] entertainment-systems which are FireWire based, as I understand it.
On (6) Robot tanks. Same as the uav’s replacing the pilots, once the Navy and Air Force pilots as commanders get aged.
Love my LED entrance lights. Just like daylight on the walkway. Have to change the CFLs too often to make them cost effective, not to mention the mercury/proper disposal requirements.
2. Incandescent bulbs.I love incandescents for the warm, full spectrum, semi-coherent light they produce. I expect that soon materials science will produce quasi full spectrum lighting devices, most likely based on the diode junction, thus being LEDs.3. LED household bulb
I'm not sure if florescent lighting is semi-coherent or not. I suspect it is not. A laser beam is fully coherent light. One check of coherence is the ability to easily read holograms etched on plastic credit cards and driver's licenses.
I'm guessing the types of LEDs used in bulb replacements are semi-coherent. But they are very narrow spectrum. Cold, heartless lighting. Studies are showing significant physiological impacts to that lack of spectrum breadth, lack of analogs in biology and the world.
An incandescent is like a fire. Like the sun.
Florescents are also cold and narrow spectrum, although technology has greatly improved that.
I predict that florescents, but not LEDs, nor even incandescents will disappear. Although the unique shape of the millions and millions of florescent bulb fixtures might mean they last a few generations in capital plant replacement cycles. That is -- about 50 years.
2. Incandescent bulbs. They burn out too fast, cost more to operate, run too hot.
Not in a free market.
3. LED household bulbs — CF bulbs put out more light per watt, and cost a fraction of the LED bulbs. Last thing I need to spend $30 on is an underpowered LED “floodlight”, and I certainly wouldn’t install on outside for fear of theft. If the gubmint required oranges-to-oranges specs on all bulbs sold, there’d be no LED market at all. It’s unlikely that the price of LED bulbs will fall much more, give or take a breakthrought that makes them a one-for-one replacement for CFs, halogens, or incandescents.
CFLs are migraine-inducing mercury hazards.
5. Fighter planes and bombers — UAVs will replace the former, guided missiles have long ago replaced the latter.
Perhaps 2050, but not 2020. Besides, as space becomes a battlefield, weapons UAVs will be compromised.
8. USB 3.0 will replace SATA, eSATA, what’s left of PATA and IDE, what’s left of Firewire 400 and 800, and every other internal and external interface standard that uses wires. USB 4.0 will never come out.
USB hard drives use SATA or PATA connectors internally. USB 3 cannot do what you want. And in 10 years, we will have a faster replacement for USB 3, whether it is USB 4 or something like Lightpeak.