Intrade is not serious this far out.....it’s people wasting extra money throwing it around - how can Mitt be the top guy considering , shunning the Tea Party, had no connection to grassroots movement et al.? These people are not serious betters until people announce and campaigns begin
Well the conventional wisdom is that the Tea Party helped in House races but hurt in Senate (statewide) races. So, considering that the primaries are a series of statewide races ‘shunning the Tea Party’ might be the right strategy.
Of course the Tea Party was very good at nominating statewide candidates (better than at electing them) so maybe you are right.
Only half the states have completely closed primaries.
Mitt can win with Independent and Democrat votes.