<
Looking ENE across south bay toward Eureka..
fyi
Purchase a set of snow shoes all. Your going to need em over the next ten years or more.
*******************************EXCERPT****************************************
Carl Chapman says:
If the sun’s magnetic field continues to weaken, and we’re entering a repeat of the Maunder Minimum, then another trend would need to be imposed on top of the El Nino/La Nina. It could be much more significant. Hansen would need to make Herculean efforts to “adjust” that sort of cooling away.
*********************************EXCERPT*****************************************
Werner Brozek says:
“Mike McMillan says:
January 23, 2011 at 11:30 am
Dr Hansen’s GISS line on the charts is so, fer shure, like totally bogus.”
I would find that hard to argue with. I did some number crunching and came up with this:
I have read that GISS is the only record that is accurate since it adequately considers what happens in the polar regions, unlike other data sets. I have done some “back of the envelope calculations” to see if this is a valid assumption. I challenge any GISS supporter to challenge my assumptions and/or calculations and show that I am way out to lunch. If you cannot do this, I will assume it is the GISS calculations that are out to lunch.
Here are my assumptions and/or calculations: (I will generally work to 2 significant digits.)
1. The surface area of Earth is 5.1 x 10^8 km squared.
2. The RSS data is only good to 82.5 degrees.
3. It is almost exclusively the northern Arctic that is presumably way warmer and not Antarctica. For example, we always read about the northern ice melting and not what the southern areas are gaining in ice.
4. The circumference of Earth is 40,000 km.
5. I will assume the area between 82.5 degrees and 90 degrees can be assumed to be a flat circle so spherical trigonometry is not needed.
6. The area of a circle is pi r squared.
7. The distance between 82.5 degrees and 90.0 degrees is 40,000 x 7.5/360 = 830 km
8. The area in the north polar region above 82.5 degrees is 2.2 x 10^6 km squared.
9. The ratio of the area between the whole earth and the north polar region above 82.5 degrees is 5.1 x 10^8 km squared/2.2 x 10^6 km squared = 230.
10. People wondered if the satellite record for 2010 would be higher than for 1998. Let us compare these two between RSS and GISS.
11. According to GISS, the difference in anomaly was 0.07 degrees C higher for 2010 versus 1998.
12. According to RSS, it was 0.04 degrees C higher for 1998 versus 2010.
13. The net difference between 1998 and 2010 between RSS and GISS is 0.11 degrees C.
14. If we are to assume the only difference between these is due to GISS accurately accounting for what happens above 82.5 degrees, then this area had to be 230 x 0.11 = 25 degrees warmer in 2010 than 1998.
15. If we assume the site at http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php can be trusted for temperatures above 80 degrees north, we see very little difference between 1998 and 2010. The 2010 seems slightly warmer, but nothing remotely close to 25 degrees warmer as an average for the whole year.
Readers may disagree with some assumptions I used, but whatever issue anyone may have, does it affect the final conclusion about the lack of superiority of GISS data to any real extent?
<
Looking ENE across south bay toward Eureka..
**********************************EXCERPT*************************************
richcar 1225 says:
NIWA in their state of the climate report refers to the IPO (interdecadal pacific oscillation) that when negative is dominated by LA Ninas in frequency and strength. They claim it turned negative in 2000 and if similar to the 1947-1977 negative IPO should run for another twenty years.
http://lch.web.psi.ch/files/Publikationen/analytic/Eichleretal_GRL2009.pdf
They also point that this is the opposite of what climate modelers predicted.
This with twenty more years of negative NAO in the northern hemisphere, negative PDO, declining AMO and a sun that has been declining since 1990 and we should have some significant global cooling.
**********************************EXCERPT********************************************
Baa Humbug says:
From the Australian BoM site ENSO Wrap up
La Niña continues to dominate in the Pacific
Issued on Wednesday 19 January 2011 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO
One of the strongest La Niña events on record continues to influence the climate of the Pacific Basin.
Climate indicators of ENSO, including tropical cloud amount, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and Pacific sea surface and sub-surface temperatures, all remain well in excess of La Niña thresholds. Most have exceeded these thresholds since the middle of 2010. The average August to December SOI (+21.1) has only been exceeded by the La Niña of 1917-18 (+24.4), with the 1975-76 La Niña value (+18.8) ranked third. Several other indices also suggest the La Niña events of 2010-11, 1975-76, 1917-18, 1955-56 and possibly 1988-89, rank closely in terms of the strongest events on record.
Franks little essay is a conjecture OF INTEREST. He made no claims of predictive ability. Franks only claim is that if this La Nina continues, it will be interesting to see how warmists will spin the falling temperatures.
To see WHAT MAY HAPPEN TO TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES if this La Nina continued, Frank simply and reasonably assumed a similar impact on Ts from this La Nina as from previous La Nina. (the impact may possibly be stronger due to the strength of this La Nina)
This is an essay of interesting conjecture only, not meant for journal publication. No need to get picky about fine details.
Serious scientists need not comment. The rest of us will have fun discussing this WHAT IF conjecture.
Well done Frank.
To be sure the MSM is going to bury (no pun) all the stories of the homeless (that libtards couldn’t protect in spite of the war on poverty) by the dozens from the west coast, upper midwest, and of course the east coast from these normal Earth temps that kill people.