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Current activity in Iceland (01.11.2010)
By Rikke Pedersen and Páll Einarsson
Grimsvötn volcano situated near the center of the Vatnajökull ice cap in central Iceland, is one of Iceland’s most active volcanoes. It has a complex of calderas and a subglacial caldera lake sustained by geothermal heat. An expedition of the glaciological group of IES at the beginning of October 2010 reported that the lake level was comparable to the level prior to the jökullhlaup (episodic rapid water drainage) in 2004. The pressure decrease following the 2004 water discharge, where about 0.7 km3 of water were removed in a matter of days, is thought to have acted as a trigger for the subsequent Grimsvötn 2004 eruption (see more at http://www.jardvis.hi.is/page/ies_grimsvotn2004).
Tremor at the Grimsvötn seismometer (run by the Icelandic Meterological Office, www.vedur.is) can be used as an indicator for the onset and development of a Jökullhlaup from the subglacial lake. The tremor has therefore been closely monitored since the report from the glaciological expedition, as a jökullhlaup has been anticipated.
The first signs of increased tremor started to show on Thursday (28/10/2010) followed by several days of steady tremor increase. A strong storm during the weekend caused additional disturbances superimposed on the signal from the jökullhlaup, but the steady increase was still apparent at the end of the storm, and the general pattern follows the trend observed prior to the outbreak of the 2004 jökullhlaup.
A jökullhlaup from the Grimsvötn subglacial lake was confirmed in the afternoon of the 31/10/2010. The water drainage in Gígjukvísl (south rim of Vatnajökull) has increased more than 300% within the past 24 hours and is still increasing.
As the conditions in the Grimsvötn volcanic system (high magma pressure is indicated by GPS measurements) appears to be comparable to the state prior to the 2004 jökullhlaup and subsequent eruption, there is an increased likelihood of an imminent eruption from the Grimsvötn volcano in the following days.