Poul Anderson’s Answer to Fermi

Centauri-Dreams ^ | 8/30/10 | Paul Gilster

[oldtimer2]

After about 60 years of reading and thinking, I am convinced we are alone. By the way, are you aware that most pulp science fiction from the 40's and 50's are now public domain and can be read online? Try this link:

Free speculative fiction online

I have found many stories that I read in High School 1951 -1955

[Moonman62]

long before this has happened, the sphere of exploration will include so many stars that the data flow from them saturates the processing capacity of the present civilisation.

I guess he never heard of Moore's law. If hardware can keep up with the glop from Microsoft, then it can keep up with interstellar expansion.

[Moonman62]

Life is extremely rare by almost every measure, even in our own solar system.

[exhaustguy]

I think technological civilizations are exceedingly rare and they don’t stay around forever. If you think of the “keyhole” events are own race went through to reach this point, realize we have been on the cusp of our own technology destroying us, and how long complex life took to develop; I can see technological civilizations separated by 10s of thousands of light years making any sort of interaction impossible. Probability may hint that we are the earliest possible anyway (2nd generation star system with heavy elements, time to develop complex life etc). I think we should be looking for sophisticated propulsion systems (on the order of solar energy releases) to find other tehnological civilizations. Radio signals just don’t cut it. We should keep looking though.

[Psycho_Bunny]

There was an article at NPR a few weeks ago where the author was explaining the possibility of quantum entanglement communications and the possibility of teleportation...and also, as the author stated "some even think quantum entanglement could explain telepathy".

lolololol...NPR.....idiots.

[Kevmo]

I agree. The Drake equation put the chance at developing life as 1 in 100. The chances of a single protein molecule forming into a polypeptide is 1 in 100 trillion trillion, and since the simplest life would require hundreds of thousands of these, the chance for life to arrive through abiogenesis would be several THOUSAND orders of magnitude smaller than what the Drake equation postulates.

[Dryman]

Thanks for the Post. I enjoy Poul Anderson and have just picked up again a collection of some of his stories.

A question I wanted asked is...

What if we are the First one to develop? At some point, something has to be # 1.

[LibWhacker]

Hi, Dryman!... It’s true; we might be first. But the average star is 6.5 billion years old. The Sun and its planets are 4.5 billion years old. If the evolution of life on Earth is typical of life in the universe, life on the average life-bearing planet has a two billion year head start on us. Given these facts, how likely is it that we’re first? The situation seems to be calling out for more data.

We might be the only ones (not likely, imho). Or we might be the only ones that currently exists in some huge volume of space around us (more likely). Or ours might be the only planet with intelligent life on it (less likely). Or the only one with an advanced technological civilization on it (more likely; dolphins and whales haven’t invented anything and they’re pretty smart). Or we’re first as you suspect. Maybe the Mogradathians have exterminated all the others and just haven’t taken notice of us yet (least likely of all, but still possible). But which is it? We need more data at a time when Zero wants to turn NASA into an agency whose prime directive is reaching out to his fellow 7th Century primitives.

[SunkenCiv]

thanks LibWhacker.

Did hunter’s infrared camera capture images of UFO?
latimes | August 26, 2010 | Kelly Burgess
Posted on 08/28/2010 1:33:16 PM PDT by JoeProBono
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/2579303/posts

[Brilliant]

Ain’t never going to happen. Even if you assume that was in priciple possible I remember reading an article in Scientific American several years ago that discussed a possible plan to send a probe to Alpha Proxima the closest star other than the Sun. They proposed a fusion powered rocket. They calculated that the space ship would be massive—a spherical fuel tank about a mile in diameter. The payload would be a camera weighing a few ounces. You’d run the rocket engines full time for 50 years. In 50 years, the probe would arrive at Alpha Proxima, the closet star at 4.5 light years. But it would be traveling at about 10% of the speed of light and would zip thru the solar system in a few hours. So you ca see the difficulty involved in interstellar travel. Vast amounts of fuel. Long missions. Tremendous speeds. And technology which is visionary. And that just gets us to our nearest neighbor.

[SunkenCiv]

Fermi’s Paradox is really Fermi’s Straw Man.

http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/fermiparadox/index

[Flag_This]

I used to read a lot of scifi; sadly, I don’t believe anymore.

[Old Student]

I still believe, I just no longer believe that I, personally, am going to the stars. Or even another planet. Not in THIS life, anyway.

Travis Taylor, David Weber, John Ringo, David Drake, and Eric Flint top my reading list, these days. Used to be Jerry Pournelle and Larry Niven. Before that, Bob Heinlein, Poul Anderson, Andre Norton, H. Beam Piper, etc.

I am getting tired of outliving my favorite writers. Since I'm really not ready to die, they need to take better care of themselves!

[Mister Da]

Anything that is conceivable, is doable. Certainly not in our lifetimes, but in the next 1000 years it is highly probable, IMO.

One thousand years ago, the fastest modes of transportation maybe could do 15 mph. People believed the earth was flat & the sun revolved around the Earth. Today, the Shuttle & satellites routinely do 15,000+ mph. One thousand years from now, I expect the same quantum leap in technology. A million years from now, the speeds possible might very well be light years per SECOND, making your vacation trip to Proxima Centauri* take 4.5 seconds, plus 3 hours in the security check line. Of course, if you manipulate space/time properly, you can get there before you leave.

“Ain’t never going to happen.”

No disrespect intended, but history has frequently proved that statement to be incredibly wrong.

*I believe you meant Proxima Centauri vs. Alpha Proxima. Anyway, PC is a red dwarf & not very appealing. Also, no pool at the Holiday Inn & the neutral gravity beds are lumpy.

[Brilliant]

Unfortunately, neither of us is going to live long enough to say I told you so, unless of course the laws of physics receive a revision, which I personally think is more likely than the possibility that man ever will get there.