I basically agree with all your points except this one. I disagree because you cannot conceive of and take sufficient immediate action for every unexpected occurrence that comes up while you are driving; i.e. sudden downpours, objects in the road, unexpected movement by other drivers, black ice, etc.
Not every "unexpected occurence". But certain.y every one you listed. It is rare that a sudden downpour happens without there being some sign of rain, dark clouds, etc. And usually you can see rain up ahead in the road, if you are looking for it. I do, and point it out to my children so they understand how to read the road. I then slow down, get space in front of me, and if it looks like we are going to go slower than 40 mph, I put on my flashers. I also watch behind me to see if people aren't paying attention, ready to speed up if they aren't while also flashing my brake lights. I've saved myself from rear-end collisions several times by paying attention to what is behind me.
Objects in the road? Unless they just fell off the car in front of me, you watch ahead. People will be weaving around them, or if no cars are ahead, you see them. You move early, slow down if necessary. I don't follow closely behind vans, trucks, or large cars that I can't see through and around, so I'm not surprised (only exception is sometimes I'll follow a truck more closely, because they can't stop as quickly and will tend to clear out things in front of us). If a pickup truck pulls in front of me, I'll look to see if I can let a couple of small cars in front to give me a better view, or I'll try to pass the pickup to get behind a smaller car. This is simple survival skill, and good driving.
You can't always see unexpected movement by other drivers, but you can keep a watch on other drivers. I also tend to change my speed so there are no cars right next to me, I pass quickly when I have to, and work hard to maintain clearance on all 4 sides whenever possible, and certainly when moving at or above speed. I also pay attention to all the cars, so I notice cars that are behaving poorly. I often can tell ahead of time that a car is going to drift off the road -- you can see signs that a driver might be falling asleep.
So, recently I'm in the left lane, and I notice on the far right there is a car that clearly has a driver not paying attention, maybe falling asleep. I'm about 40 yards behind, and even though I'm 3 lanes over, I speed up to clear the car. As I pass where the car is, it drifts off the road, almost hits the guardrail. I presume the rumble strips get his attention, because he whips his wheel back onto the road, and fortunately, the car behind him hadn't tried to pass thinking he was pulling over. The car in the next lane though swerved left, but by this time I'm already 4 car lengths AHEAD of the mess, so if there is an accident it isn't taking ME out.
In another recent case, it's pouring, I'm in the left lane, and suddenly come up on stopped traffic (turns out someone just drove off the road, and several people swerve and some stop to help and it just makes a mess). I brake in time, but notice the car behind me is coming up fast. So, being in the left lane, I simply drive off the road onto the shoulder, and then move forward a bit. The car behind me turns out has to also swerve over to the shoulder to avoid hitting the car that was in front of me, but nobody hits anybody. It's not hard, just means you have to pay attention to all the cars around you.
black ice? That happens when it's cold. Fortunately, my car tells me when it's 37 degrees or less outside, and I change my driving habits. Last winter, it was clear there was frozen rain around, I was on a country road, and I pulled over 4 times to let more local drivers pass me, since I felt uncomfortable with the chance of hitting a wet spot that was actually frozen. They were able to get quickly on their way, they weren't tailgating me, and I was able to watch them to see if they slid at all, warning me about ice conditions.
Driving is all about paying attention, knowing what could get you in trouble, understanding how to stay out of trouble. In many cases, speeding is a way to keep out of trouble, it gets me away from congested, slower-moving cars often driven by less-confident drivers. It allows me to easily understand my surrounding traffic because it is in FRONT of me and then I come INTO it, easier than trying to see what is sneaking up on me from behind all the time.
You also have to understand the car you are driving, and that means having done things with it to see it's limits. I've slid out, fishtailed, went off on icy patches, all in safe places where I could feel the response.
So yes, I COULD be surprised. An animal could run out. I'm attracted oddly to potholes. A tire could blow, something can fall of a car in front of me (I do pay attention around pickup trucks to see if they are carrying things that might come loose and cause trouble).
But I don't feel the extra speed puts me at risk, relative to the gains. And if I am wrong, laws should punish me for that extra risk I took, but only if it actually causes harm to others. I have a right to endanger myself.