Why the iPad will Flop

Seeking Alpha ^ | 04/04/2010 | Alex Cook

[ctdonath2]

how many situations are people really in for 11 hours without a power source?

Battery life is a brick-wall effect. If you need 1 minute more than what the battery will give, you'd better be dragging with you that brick with dangly wires.

11+ hour battery life pretty much assures power source won't be an issue and you won't have to drag that power supply around "just in case". Besides, for the iPad all you'll need is a skinny lightweight USB-iP*d cable instead of the brick should you risk full discharge.

And yes, numerous times I've been irritated at having to sit on the floor in a corner of an airport, within 6 feet of whatever scarce outlet I could find, because my netbook's 3-hour battery life just wasn't cutting it. 4x the battery life for 1/3 the weight woulda been nice.

[ctdonath2]

turn on in a relatively short time.

You might be surprised at how handy "instant on" is over "relatively short startup time".

And with that 11+ hour battery life, I'm not so concerned about conserving power usage: "short startup" gives way to "instant on" gives way to "already on".

[ctdonath2]

Yes I’m a yammering twit.
I’m an engineer. I love thinking about usability in such detail.

[r9etb]

A reviewer who has never touched the iPad, weighs in with his opinion... PING!

Letterman touched it and it crashed three times. That's gonna make me run out and buy one!

[Bubba Ho-Tep]

Have close to 3K songs.

Piker. As of this moment, I have 22,866 songs, 59.7 Days of music on my desktop. I have an Airport Express connected to my home entertainment system and can use my iPhone as a remote to play anything in that library through it.

[Star Traveler]

Why the iPad will Flop

For Apple people who have been around for a while, it just gets too funny and shows how so many of these pundits (or the self-proclaimed types, too) -- just don't understand what the consumer automatically "gets" ... :-)

We've heard ...

• Apple is going to fail
• Apple computers will never go anywhere
• iTunes will never amount to anything
• iTunes distribution of music will never be important or significant
• iMac (when it came out) will not amount to anything other than a flash in the pan
• iPhone will never sell
• iPhone is just a fad
• and now, iPad is nothing but a gimmick
• iPad will never amount to anything significant

It just goes on and on and on -- and it does so for decades on end... without fail. If there's one thing you can be sure of, is when the "nattering nabobs of negativity" get out their pens and start writing things against what Apple is doing for the consumer with their fine products -- you can be sure that those writers have no idea what they're talking about.

At least there are a few writers who have "gotten it" and are writing some sensible stuff these days, but considering how many are locked into a mentally deficient understanding of what the consumer wants, influenced by their "mentality involved with Windows" -- it's no wonder they are so surprised when the American consumer does an 'end run" around their thinking that they write in their articles ... LOL ...

[Star Traveler]

You were saying ...

Letterman touched it and it crashed three times. That's gonna make me run out and buy one!

Ummmm..., I wouldn't be going by Letterman...

Letterman touches women and they "crash" and shutdown... and then, can't get away fast enough, doncha know... LOL ...

[r9etb]

eewww.

Nevertheless.... Nothing like watching something crash while doing simple stuff to make a sales point.

[kitkat]

I just got an email from Adobe with the title, “Your Adobe log in is now your email address.” I’m assuming it is an attempt to hack my computer, and dumped it without opening it. Anybody hear about this?

[Star Traveler]

You were saying ...

Apple ditched the floppy drive while others still offered it. Apple ditched the old serial and parallel connectors in favor of USB and Firewire, and the others still offered RS-232 and parallel. Apple ditched CRTs for LCDs way before the competition.

Apple does it every time... they move the market forward when the other manufacturers, if left to their own choices, would stay permanently in the past. Thank God for Apple or we would still be reading green letters on a screen and looking at ASCII Art ... LOL ...

Here's the "artwork" we would be looking at today, if not for Apple Computer ...

And here's what the other manufacturers would have us looking at today on our screens if not for Apple perfecting lettering/typespacing/graphics on the screen for the average Joe at home on his desktop ...

Thank you Apple for rescuing us from those mindless computer manufacturers...

[Star Traveler]

You were saying ...

Nothing like watching something crash while doing simple stuff to make a sales point.

That reminds me of a demo that Bill Gates did one time in front of a big audience and couldn't get it going, kept crashing... LOL ...

Steve Jobs would go ballistic over that, and whoever was in charge of setting things up or had some bug in there that caused it -- would be "drawn and quartered" never to be seen by his family again ... :-)

[Star Traveler]

You were saying ...

Love my Macs, but everything Apple is not “magical”.

No..., they're not "magical" -- but when put up against the other computer manufacturers and other electronic products that tie in (like they have in their ecosystem of products) -- they seem "godlike".

But, that's a result of the others being total "dullards"... if it weren't for them being such idiots and dullards, Apple would look normal... doncha know ...

Apple does such a fine job of "advancing the industry" to the benefit of the consumer. I would hate to think what we would be using today, if not for Apple advancing the industry.

[r9etb]

That reminds me of a demo that Bill Gates did one time in front of a big audience and couldn't get it going, kept crashing... LOL ...

Yeah, I was remembering that when I was posting....

[Star Traveler]

Oh yeah ... :-)

[Star Traveler]

You were saying ...

One must have a very dull life to pay $500,00 for a toy.

Ummm..., that's not where the "dullness factor" comes into play ... :-)

It's the ones who can't see the benefits from products that advance the quality of life of a person ... now there's the "dullness factor" in full bloom... LOL ...

Usually those types don't last very long in this society, so they end up self-terminating, doncha know... from that "dullness factor" and don't propagate their genes very far ... :-)

[Star Traveler]

You were saying ...

Not me, buddy. Jobs is one of the biggest assholes ever hatched. He's a successful asshole, but still an asshole.

Well, let me tell you, then ... he's exactly the asshole I want behind these fine Apple products and pushing their development. I couldn't ask for a better asshole to run that company...

He's the best asshole that Apple could ever have...

[P.S. ... and they know it, too... doncha know ... :-) ...]

[P.P.S. ... it's just too bad that our "industry" in the U.S. doesn't have a whole lot more assholes like Steve Jobs. We'd take over the world in two weeks, if we did... LOL ...]

[SamAdams76]

Yes, but the major difference is that the iPad can go with you everywhere. The couch, the bathroom, the backyard, the beach, the car, the plane, etc.

Yes, you can technically take the laptop all of those places but if you plan to use the laptop more than two hours, you need to lug a charger and have a place to plug it in. The iPad will run all day on a single charge which makes it much more portable and convenient. Plus it's instant on and easier to handle.

[Star Traveler]

You were saying ...

Apple is poised to sell more tablet computers this year than have sold in the last decade. Tell me, what is is those competing products are doing right?

Ummmm... I think they can do ASCII art pretty good and do a great "green character" rendition. onscreen ...

They have worked on that quite a bit lately, I think ... :-)

You can see how much they've improved in Post #70 ...

[Star Traveler]

You were saying ...

Yes, but the major difference is that the iPad can go with you everywhere. The couch, the bathroom, the backyard, the beach, the car, the plane, etc.

Exactly... another game changer like the iPhone... ya gotta hand it to Apple... they just keep doing it time and time again...

[HamiltonJay]

The iPad at this point certainly is more hype than anything, it hasn’t proved itself yet, but with that said, that doesn’t mean it won’t.

A small, tablet, touch based system certainly has potential to be a game changer, just as the Iphone certainly revolutionized the cell phone market and the iPod personal audio.

Now there is no doubt Apple is about “coolness”, it is the very fabric of their corporate identity, but coolness alone leaves you as a niche player.. Apple computers are basically this, iPod and iPhone however are industry leaders and drivers.

iPad is the first significant mover in the touch based netbook market, which lets all be honest, this is exactly what this thing is. However what will make it sink or swim from a practicle perspective is going to be the human interface element. If this proves itself viable and desireable, iPad will put Apple right in the lead of a whole new marketplace, if it doesn’t it will be a doorstop.

Its a media consumption device with computing possibilities, and if it can successfully replace the laptop for folks, it could definitely be a game changer. Now, will it? I don’t know.

I know lugging around a laptop by folks who really don’t need anywhere near that power and size and replacing it with a 1.5 lbs device that can effectively do everything they need, email, word processing, spread sheets, and their personal entertainment needs, and get to the files on their work machines when needed ala Citrix etc, there is little doubt there is a potential market for this sort of device... the only question is will that device be the iPad?

I think Apple needs to get off its price premiums for this to happen, and generally speaking the premium on this device is actually rather low by Apple Standards, so it is going to boil down to user experience, which is something that Apple is known for.

Time will tell, right now its the “gotta have it cool kids toy”... doesn’t mean that a year from now it could not become a very mainstream product. Or that a year from now, its replaces the fag bag as the accessorry for mocking the croissant eating, coffee shop, soul patch wearing folks for most.