Good analysis. But I think the bottom 3 will be:
Mike, Aaron and Siobhan.
I called it right on Tim last week.
My call tonight: Big Mike.
(But there may be just a tad of wishful thinking in there! I love Lee. And Mike sounds the same week in, week out...boring.)
This is the time of year that we start looking at voting blocks and who is splitting votes — that generally is a good indicator of who is in trouble.
This is what I see now.
Crystal has the large older adult demographic that carried people like Taylor, Kris, Cook to the finals and wins. Even with a hiccup this week she is in good shape the rest of the way.
Aaron now has the Tweeny texter contingent all to himself with Tim and Katie out of the way. Pencil him into the top 3 unfortunately.
Siobhan has nowhere as deep of a base as those two, but she has the ALT/Adam/etc base locked up and is good for a couple more weeks.
Mike has the R&B bloc, but that has been notoriously weak over the history of the show (Fantasia notwithstanding and Jordin getting the older vote over Blake in the finals). He is in serious trouble this week.
That leaves Lee & Casey as the last duo splitting votes. As such one of them is in trouble this week. Lee had a worse week this week so he is on the hot seat.
Vote off order prediction:
top 6 – Mike or Lee, probably Mike
top 5 – Mike if Lee goes, Lee or Casey if Mike goes
Top 4 – Siobahn
Top 3 – Aaron
Finals will be Crystal vs survivor of Casey/Lee