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The turning point in the Pacific War was not Midway or Guadalcanal it was Pearl Harbor.
It was a war that could not have been won simply based on the relative ability of each side to produce aircraft carriers, planes and transports. [I think the production ratio was something like 10 to 1.]
The fatal flaw in all the Japanese plans was the idea that after being attacked the US would eventually agree to some form of peace treaty short of unconditional surrender.

The fatal flaw in all the Japanese plans was the idea that after being attacked the US would eventually agree to some form of peace treaty short of unconditional surrender

Underestimating the will of the "sleeping giant" is actually quite common. Ask Saddam Hussien... oh that's right, he made the mistake, and he's dead.

The Iranians likely will make the same mistake.. but with The One being CinC, it might not be such a mistake, as it was not when Mr. Peanut was in charge.

The fatal flaw in all the Japanese plans was the idea that after being attacked the US would eventually agree to some form of peace treaty short of unconditional surrender.

That's it exactly. Japan's war aims were not to "defeat" the US. They were to seize territory and damage US forces to an extent where the US would enter into negotiations for a peaceful end to hostilities.

Coming from a "war is another form of diplomacy", they didn't understand the US (or Western) view of total war, which is that when engaged you attempt to DEFEAT the other side.

Yamamoto, who had spent time in the US attending Harvard (I think) and liaising (playing poker) with US Naval Officers, knew this difference, and also knew what US industrial might could do. His comment about needing to march into DC and force terms upon the President in the White House was deliberately absurdist, designed to show the futility of trying to win against the US. But few (if any) on his side were willing to listen. So he did his duty.

This was especially true due to the botched entry into war with the Pearl Harbor attack. The plan was to declare war a short (minutes or an hour) BEFORE the attack was launched. Instead the Japanese Embassy in DC couldn't decrypt the war message fast enough, so the declaration came AFTER the attack. Instead of just fighting a more capable US, the Japanese were faced with fighting a US that was ALSO incredibly P*SSED about having been sucker-punched.